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Climate, development tipped for Nobel economics prize
STOCKHOLM, Oct 8, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – The 2018 Nobel season, marked by the
lack of a literature award for the first time in 70 years, winds up Monday
with the economics prize which experts say could go to research on the
climate or development.
The Nobel economics prize was created by the Swedish central bank “in
memory of Alfred Nobel” and first awarded in 1969, unlike the other prizes
which were created in his last will and testament and first awarded in 1901.
As with the other Nobels, nominations and deliberations are kept secret
for 50 years, so it’s nearly impossible to know which way the prize committee
is leaning each year.
“From a historical perspective, there are about as many conservative as
liberal economists in recent years and the trend has been for
diversification: the range of fields of research that have been honoured has
been more vast, the choice of laureates has been more eclectic,” economist
Gabriel Soderberg of Sweden’s Uppsala University told AFP.
Last year the prize went to US economist Richard Thaler, a co-founder of
the so-called “nudge” theory, which demonstrates how people can be persuaded
to make decisions that leave them healthier and happier.
“The heart of the Nobel prizes are the awards for science, peace and
literature. The economics prize is not formally a Nobel prize,” Soderberg
said.
That fact may make “the jury more attentive to public opinion, a little
more sensitive to the way in which the laureate will be received,” he said.
This is why “societal questions are reflected in the prize. The issue of
climate change is very important right now and (for this reason) William
Nordhaus could be honoured,” he said.
Nordhaus, a Yale University professor known for his research on the
economic consequences of global warming, bears two of the typical
characteristics of a Nobel economics laureate: he’s a man, and he’s American,
like 70 percent of previous prizewinners.
At 77, he’s a decade older than the average winner.
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– A woman’s year ? –
Only one woman has won the economics prize since 1969, Elinor Ostrom in
2009.
Micael Dahlen, a professor at the Stockholm School of Economics, said that
was all the more reason to give the nod to a woman this year.
“I’d really like to see the prize go to (France’s) Esther Duflo, whose
research has focused on developing economies and gender equality, or Cuban-
born American Carmen Reinhart, active in the field of public finance,” Dahlen
explained.
Meanwhile, Hubert Fromlet, a professor at Sweden’s University of Vaxjo
singled out several American women who could be honoured: Anne Krueger, the
first woman named the deputy head of the International Monetary Fund, Susan
Athey, known for her work on auctions and decision making under uncertainty,
and Claudia Goldin, who researches gender inequality.
“I could also see the prize going to a macro-economist like Ben Bernanke,”
the former head of the US Federal Reserve, said Dahlen.
Among the “usual suspects” cited frequently for the Nobel are US
economists Paul Romer and Paul Milgrom, and Frenchman Olivier Blanchard, a
former IMF chief economist.
The youngest Nobel prize is this year celebrating its 50th anniversary.
Created in 1968 to mark the tricentenary of the Swedish central bank, the
Riksbank, it is the most prestigious prize an economics researcher can win.
Nobel’s will stipulated that the prizes shall go to people who have worked
to create “a better world”.
According to Micael Dahlen, “economics has the same sweeping effects on
society as the other disciplines and can therefore be considered a
prerequisite for everything from scientific progress to culture and peace”.
“It’s about understanding and creating the basis for well-being and
development,” Dahlen said.
The prize is to be announced on Monday at 11:45 am (0945 GMT) in
Stockholm, wrapping up the 2018 awards season in which the most highly-
anticipated prize, that for peace, on Friday went to Yazidi women’s
campaigner Nadia Murad, a former Islamic State sex slave, and Congolese
doctor Denis Mukwege, who helps women recover from the violence and trauma of
sexual abuse and rape in war.
The Nobel, which consists of a diploma, a gold medal and a cheque for nine
million kronor (around $1 million, 863,000 euros), will be handed over at a
formal ceremony in Stockholm on December 10.
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