ZCZC
BCN-27
WB-SUB-SAHARAN-AFRICA-ECONOMY-GROWTH
World Bank forecasts 2.7 pct growth for sub-Saharan Africa in 2018
NAIROBI, Oct. 4, 2018 (BSS/Xinhua) – The World Bank has cut its forecast
for growth of sub-Saharan Africa in 2018 to 2.7 percent, down from an earlier
one of 3.1 percent, partly due to less favorable external environment for the
region.
The lender said in its October 2018 issue of Africa’s Pulse, the bi-annual
analysis of the state of African economies, that its 2018 projection
represents a slight increase from 2.3 percent in 2017.
“The slower pace of the recovery in sub-Saharan Africa (0.4 percentage
points lower than the April forecast) is explained by the sluggish expansion
in the region’s three largest economies, Nigeria, Angola, and South Africa,”
said the World Bank.
Albert Zeufack, World Bank chief economist for Africa, said the region’s
economic recovery is in progress but at a slower pace than expected.
Zeufact said policymakers must continue to focus on investments that
foster human capital, reduce resource misallocation and boost productivity to
accelerate and sustain an inclusive growth momentum.
“Policymakers in the region must equip themselves to manage new risks
arising from changes in the composition of capital flows and debt,” he said.
According to the report, global trade and industrial activity lost
momentum, as metals and agricultural prices fell due to concerns about trade
tariffs and weakening demand prospects.
“While oil prices are likely to be on an upward trend into 2019, metals
prices may remain subdued amid muted demand, particularly in China. Financial
market pressures intensified in some emerging markets and concern about their
dollar-denominated debt has risen amid a stronger U.S. dollar,” says the
Pulse.
The World Bank said lower oil production in Angola and Nigeria offset
higher oil prices, and in South Africa, weak household consumption growth was
compounded by a contraction in agriculture.
The lender said growth in the region — excluding Angola, Nigeria and
South Africa — was steady, noting that several oil exporters in central
Africa were helped by higher oil prices and an increase in oil production.
According to the World Bank, economic activity remained solid in fast-
growing non-resource-rich countries, such as C”te d’Ivoire, Kenya, and
Rwanda, supported by agricultural production and services on the production
side, and household consumption and public investment on the demand side.
The lender warned that public debt remained high and continues to rise in
some countries, noting that vulnerability to weaker currencies and rising
interest rates associated with the changing composition of debt may put the
region’s public debt sustainability further at risk.
BSS/XINHUA/HR/1220