ZCZC
BCN-35
US-CONSUMER-FINANCIAL-PROSPECT
U.S. consumers expect favorable financial prospects
CHICAGO, Sept. 29, 2018 (BSS/Xinhua) – U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index was
100.1 in September, up from 96.2 in August and last September’s 95.1,
according to the University of Michigan (UM) Surveys of Consumers.
This is only the third time for the index to top 100 since January 2004.
The Expectations Index rose to 90.5 in September, up from 87.1 one month
ago and 84.4 one year earlier. The Current Conditions Index rose to 115.2 in
September from 110.3 in August and 111.7 in last September’s survey.
For financial prospects for the year ahead, 44 percent of all consumers
expected improved finances, the highest reading since 2004, and not much
below the all-time peak of 49 percent set in 1998.
Consumers judged their current financial situation very favorably, as
improvements in their finances were cited by 56 percent in September, just
below the all-time record of 57 percent recorded in both March 2018 and
February 1998. Income gains were cited by 44 percent in September, just below
the 2018 peak of 47 percent and the all-time peak of 51 percent in February
1953.
Consumers’ views of buying conditions for homes, vehicles and durables
grew more optimistic in September, mainly due to greater certainty of job and
income prospects. Consumers anticipated that the already record-low
unemployment rates would continue to slowly decline in the year ahead.
Moreover, consumers were slightly more likely to favor advance buying
ahead of anticipated increases in either interest rates or prices, with 20
percent for durables, 13 percent for vehicles and 25 percent for homes.
“Consumers anticipated continued growth in the economy, an even lower
unemployment rate and gains in their own finances during the year ahead,”
said UM economist Richard Curtin, director of the surveys. “While some
declines were recorded among higher income households, the outlook for
consumer spending is still quite favorable.”
“The single issue that worries consumers is the potential negative impact
of tariffs on the economy. These concerns were cited by nearly one-third of
all consumers in each of the past three months,” Curtin said.
Overall, the latest data indicate that real consumer spending will advance
at a 2.6-percent pace in the second half of 2018 to the first half of 2019.
The Surveys of Consumers is a rotating panel survey based on a nationally
representative sample that gives each household in the coterminous United
States an equal probability of being selected.
BSS/XINHUA/HR/1220