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Closer Italy-U.S. ties seen as having indirect impact for Italy’s economy
ROME, Aug. 12, 2018 (BSS/Xinhua) – The prospect of closer relations between
the leaders of Italy and the United States is only likely to have an indirect
impact on Italy’s struggling economy, analysts told Xinhua, though it could
have a ripple effect on migrant policy and relations with Russia.
Italy and the United States are traditional allies. But since becoming
prime minister 10 weeks ago, the policies of Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe
Conte have aligned with those of U.S. President Donald Trump more than with
any other leader from a western, industrialized country.
In less than two months, the two leaders have met three times: at the
Group of Seven (G-7) summit in Canada, at the meeting of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) in Brussels, and during Conte’s state visit to
Washington. Though the visits have yet to yield concrete results, analysts
say they are likely to prove relevant.
A direct impact on bilateral trade is unlikely, according to Alessandro
Terzulli, chief economist of SACE, the Italian export credit agency, since
trade agreements are negotiated by the European Union rather than individual
member states. But Terzulli told Xinhua there could be indirect benefits.
“We could see more collaboration between the two countries,” Terzulli
said. “Or perhaps the United States will relax tariffs on products that could
help Italy more than other countries, like automobiles, or it’s possible
Italy could be part of a process to help convince the United States to return
to the negotiating table on trade.”
In other areas, the impact of the closer relationship will be more direct.
Riccardo Puglisi, a political economist with the University of Pavia, said
the United States’ strong anti-migrant stance helps lend legitimacy for
similar anti-migrant policies in Italy.
“To some extent, both countries help legitimize the other’s policies in
this area, though Italy gains much more from that,” Puglisi said in an
interview.
Italy and the United States are also the two most important western
countries generally leaning toward friendly relations with Russia. At the G-
7, Conte was the only leader to express support for Trump’s view that Russia
should be allowed in the group that suspended it in 2014 after its military
clash with Ukraine.
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At the NATO meeting last month, Trump said he was determined to improve
relations between his country and Russia. The setting was unusual for such a
declaration given that NATO was created 69 years ago to counter the influence
of the then-Soviet Union. Conte gave more measured support for the notion.
“We have to wait and see what will happen,” Salvatore Santangelo, a
geography of linguistics professor at the Rome’s Tor Vergata University, told
Xinhua. “There is a big difference between declarations and actions, and we
have to see what the countries, including Italy, will actually do.”
Alessandro Marrone, head of research for the Institute for International
Affairs, or IAI, said Italy’s middle-ground stance on Russia is not a big
surprise. He noted that Italy has long played the role of a facilitator
between western Europe and Russia.
“I think Italy would like to see more channels of communications with
Russia open,” Marrone said in an interview.
“But I do not think any of the leaders will do anything to put the
security of NATO at risk. Italy may be eager to strengthen ties with Russia,
but not at the expense of NATO or European Union ties.”
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