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US-POLITICS-VOTE-OHIO
All eyes on Ohio special election as test of Trump, Republicans
WASHINGTON, Aug 7, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – Tuesday’s special congressional
election in Ohio is the final direct face-off between Republicans and
Democrats before the November mid-terms, and President Donald Trump’s party
is holding its breath.
The seat was supposed to remain safely in Republican hands.
But Democrats who anticipate their grassroots activism propelling a “blue
wave” this year see a genuine shot at flipping a district long held by the
GOP, and sending a message that Trump’s brand of attack politics is in
trouble.
Republicans control both the Senate and House of Representatives, but in a
time of swirling frustration with the commander-in-chief, including from
within his party, Trump is worried that any dent in the GOP hold on Congress
could hurt its ability to push through his agenda, and expose him to
Democratic efforts to oust him from power.
In recent weeks he has made several campaign appearances ahead of state
primaries, endorsing candidates for Congress and governor and imploring his
supporters, as he did in Ohio on Saturday night, to get out and vote.
Pollsters rate the Ohio race between Republican state senator Troy
Balderson and 31-year-old Democratic lawyer Danny O’Connor as a toss-up. In a
swing state that Trump won by eight points in 2016, Balderson’s 10-point lead
from June has evaporated.
An O’Connor victory in the race to succeed retired GOP congressman Patrick
Tiberi in a wealthy suburban district that has voted reliably Republican for
decades would be a massive shot in the arm for Democrats seeking to take back
the House.
“The fact it’s a dead heat indicates Republicans all across the country
are in trouble,” University of Akron professor of political science David
Cohen, who has studied elections for two decades, told AFP on Monday.
“That Dems are even competitive in Ohio’s 12th district is an indication
that the blue wave may in fact be coming” in November.
– Blue or red wave? –
Experts including those at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report say the
Republican challenge of holding their House majority is looking increasingly
difficult. Democrats need to flip 23 seats nationally to reclaim the 435-seat
House.
RealClearPolitics last Friday put the generic ballot — a poll of whether
Americans will vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress — in favor of
Democrats by 6.1 percentage points.
Democrats have already shown their muscle in several battleground
districts over the past year, winning key special elections and coming
unexpectedly close to ousting Republicans in others.
Trump is well aware of his need for a victory Tuesday in Ohio, if only to
tamp down the sense of panic about the looming mid-terms.
“They’re talking about this blue wave. I don’t think so,” Trump told a
rally in Ohio, where he sang Balderson’s praises. “I think it could be a red
wave.”
Trump also extended an endorsement to a more provocative Republican
candidate who is on a primary ballot Tuesday.
Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach — known for his divisive positions on
immigration and voting rights, is running for governor against the Republican
incumbent.
Others in the party had urged Trump not to intervene, warning that
nominating such a controversial figure as Kobach, a Trump loyalist, could
energize Democrats.
But the Republican president made the extraordinary move of supporting a
candidate over a sitting Republican governor, tweeting his endorsement of
Kobach whom he called a “fantastic guy.”
Two seats in Kansas’s all-Republican congressional delegation are seen as
potential Democratic pick-ups.
Primary elections are also being held Tuesday in Michigan, Missouri and
Washington state.
BSS/AFP/MSY/1414 hrs