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Saudi pushes to end Gulf feud, but full resolution elusive
RIYADH, Dec 10, 2020 (BSS/AFP) – Saudi Arabia is pushing for a compromise
to end a damaging three-year Gulf dispute, but a full resolution remains out
of reach despite its offer of concessions, sources close to the negotiations
say.
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan told AFP last week that the
kingdom and its allies Bahrain, Egypt and the UAE — who imposed a blockade
on Qatar in June 2017 — were “on board” to resolve the crisis, with an
agreement expected soon.
The potential thaw comes as Gulf states position themselves for the
inauguration of President-elect Joe Biden, who will welcome the resolution of
a row which has undercut US efforts to rein in arch-enemy Iran.
The blockading countries accused Doha of being too close to Tehran and
funding radical Islamist movements — charges it staunchly denies.
They originally presented Qatar with a list of 13 demands including
shutting down Al Jazeera, a popular regional broadcaster which has rankled
Gulf rulers with its high-decibel criticism, and downgrading links with their
rivals Turkey and Iran.
Doha flatly turned them down. And after a bitter standoff, the Saudi-led
bloc is willing to substantially water down their demands in the final deal,
sources familiar with the negotiations say.
A figure close to the Saudi government indicated the kingdom was ready to
make concessions by reopening its airspace to Qatari aircraft — saving them
from fuel-guzzling detours — if Doha stops funding its political opponents
and restrains its media.
“Saudi is pushing (for) it — and Saudi holds the key card which is its
airspace for Qatar,” the source told AFP.
The impasse snapped transport links, separated families, and cost billions
of dollars in lost trade and investment, damage which the Gulf economies can
ill afford as they try to power out of the coronavirus slump.
On Tuesday, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates officially threw their
support behind efforts to heal the rift. But the Saudi source said the UAE, a
staunch rival of Qatar, had been resistant.
“Emirati anger cannot be allowed to keep this fire burning… (It’s) time
to put this issue to bed.”
– ‘Limited scope’ –
Another Gulf-based source close to the negotiations told AFP that the
Saudi-driven process could result in a peace of sorts but not fully resolve
the underlying issues.
The final deal will likely be a joint document setting out the terms, they
said, possibly a reformatted version of the 2014 Riyadh agreement between
Qatar and Gulf states — a secret pact believed to promote non-interference
in each other’s affairs.
According to a Western diplomat in the Gulf, mediators from Kuwait are
pushing to get the three main leaders on board — Abu Dhabi’s Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Zayed, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Qatar’s ruler
Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani.
“Those three men will have to agree,” the diplomat told AFP, adding that
despite the Emirates’ resistance, Abu Dhabi’s leader was “closely involved”
in the process.
“We’re looking at a possible interim solution within a few weeks… I don’t
think anyone expects a complete resolution. Everyone will be looking at how
warmly the communique is worded.”
Doha-based diplomats cited a senior Qatari official as saying that the
final deal had been “agreed in principle” but was “limited in scope”.
The official, they said, suggested Saudi Arabia was unwilling to announce
the deal before the end of Trump’s term, possibly to strike a positive tone
with Biden who has pledged a tough stance towards Riyadh over its human
rights failings.
The US is keen to lift the air embargo which has prompted Qatar to use
Iran’s airspace, contributing to the approximately $133 million that Iranian
media says Tehran receives annually for overflights, undermining US efforts
to squeeze it economically.
– ‘Existential’ differences –
There are already signs that media in both Saudi Arabia and Qatar have
begun softening their shrill rhetoric.
Writing this week in the pro-government Okaz daily, which typically
lambasts Qatar, Saudi columnist Tariq al-Homayed hailed the “optimistic” mood
and called for “unity and cohesion” in the Gulf.
But the real bellwether will be the level of Qatari representation at an
upcoming Gulf Cooperation Council summit expected before the end of the year.
The attendance of Qatar’s emir would signal a rapprochement is well underway.
The Saudi-led blockade was designed to choke Qatar and force it to align
with Gulf interests, but it only propelled a self-sufficiency drive, and
pushed the deep-pocketed emirate closer to Iran and Turkey, observers say.
In an embarrassment for Riyadh in July, a UN court ruled in favour of Qatar
over the airspace dispute.
Despite Riyadh’s de-escalatory stance, mistrust between both sides runs
deep, with Homayed warning the “differences are fundamental and existential,
and do not end only with a handshake”.
“It will take a lot of time and sustained effort by all parties to rebuild
ties,” said Kristian Ulrichsen, a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute
in the United States.
“Any agreement will be the start of a longer process of reconciliation
rather than an endpoint or a return to a pre-2017 status quo ante.”
BSS/AFP/RY/08:30hrs