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Turkey’s Erdogan faces resurgent opposition in twin election test
ISTANBUL, June 24, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – Turks began voting Sunday in dual
parliamentary and presidential polls seen as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s
toughest election test, with the opposition revitalised and his popularity at
risk from growing economic troubles.
Erdogan has overseen historic change in Turkey since his Islamic-rooted
ruling party first came to power in 2002 after years of secular domination.
But critics accuse the Turkish strongman, 64, of trampling on civil liberties
and displaying autocratic behaviour.
Polling stations opened at 0500 GMT and were due to close at 1400 GMT,
with the first results expected late in the evening.
Over 56 million eligible voters can for the first time cast ballots
simultaneously in the parliamentary and presidential elections, with Erdogan
looking for a first round knockout and an overall majority for his ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP).
But both these goals are in doubt in the face of an energetic campaign by
his rival from the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), Muharrem Ince,
who has mobilised hundreds of thousands in mega rallies, and a strong
opposition alliance in the legislative polls.
– ‘Far tighter than expected’ –
Erdogan remains the favourite to hold on to the presidency — even if he
needs a second round on July 8 — but the outcome is likely to be much
tighter than he expected when calling the snap polls one-and-a-half years
ahead of schedule.
Analysts say the opposition’s performance is all the more troubling for
the authorities given how the campaign has been slanted in favour of Erdogan,
who has dominated media airtime.
“Even if the odds are on the incumbent’s side, the race is likely to be
far tighter than many expected,” said Ilke Toygur, analyst at the Elcano
Royal Institute and adjunct professor at University Carlos III in Madrid.
“Ince has shown in a very short time that a serious alternative could be
emerging.”
The stakes in this election are particularly high as the new president
will be the first to enjoy enhanced powers under a new constitution agreed in
a April 2017 referendum strongly backed by Erdogan.
Erdogan, whose mastery of political rhetoric is acknowledged even by
critics, has won a dozen elections but is now fighting against the backdrop
of increasing economic woes.
Inflation has zoomed well into double digits — with popular concern over
sharp rises in staples like potatoes and onions — while the Turkish lira has
lost some 25 percent in value against the US dollar this year.
Meanwhile, former physics teacher Ince built up a national following with
lacerating attacks on Erdogan’s rule, bringing up near-taboos like the AKP’s
past cooperation with the group of Fethullah Gulen blamed for the 2016 failed
coup.
He mustered colossal numbers for rallies in the three largest cities of
Izmir, Ankara and Istanbul on the final days of the campaign, promising a
“different Turkey”.
– ‘Flustered Erdogan’ –
“Ince’s wit, audacity, ability to poke holes through Erdogan’s narrative
and connect with Turks beyond the traditional base of his secularist CHP has
flustered Erdogan and his team,” said Anthony Skinner, head of MENA at Verisk
Maplecroft.
Erdogan has at times seemed on the back foot, making promises to lift the
state of emergency imposed after the coup bid and ensuring the 3.5 million
Syrian refugees in Turkey go home only after similar pledges by Ince.
The votes of Turkey’s Kurdish minority will be especially crucial in the
parliamentary poll. If the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) wins
seats by polling over the 10 percent minimum threshold, the AKP will struggle
to keep its overall majority.
But in a situation labelled as blatant unfairness by activists, the HDP’s
presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtas has campaigned from a prison cell
after his November 2016 arrest on charges of links to outlawed Kurdish
militants.
The opposition has also alleged heavy bias in favour of Erdogan by state
media, with news channel TRT Haber not showing a single second of Ince’s
giant final Istanbul rally live.
The vote will be closely watched by the European Union — which Erdogan
says he still wants Turkey to join despite the accession process grinding to
a halt — and the United States which has seen no improvement in ties with
its NATO ally under Donald Trump.
Tens of thousands of Turkish citizens are responding to calls from the
opposition to monitor the polls for a clean election and a delegation of
observers from the OSCE will also be in place.
BSS/AFP/GMR/1126 hrs