ZCZC
BFF-03
HEALTH-VIRUS-MIDEAST-CONFLICT
What impact is COVID-19 having on Middle East conflicts?
BEIRUT, April 5, 2020 (BSS/AFP) – The novel coronavirus has put global
trade on hold, placed half of the world population in confinement and has the
potential to topple governments and reshape diplomatic relations.
The United Nations has appealed for ceasefires in all the major conflicts
rocking the planet, with its chief Antonio Guterres on Friday warning “the
worst is yet to come”. But it remains unclear what the pandemic’s impact will
be on the multiple wars roiling the Middle East.
Here is an overview of the impact so far on the conflicts in Syria, Yemen,
Libya and Iraq:
SYRIA
The COVID-19 outbreak turned into a pandemic just as a ceasefire reached
by the two main foreign power brokers in Syria’s nine-year-old war — Russia
and Turkey — was taking effect.
The three million people living in the ceasefire zone, in the country’s
northwestern region of Idlib, had little hope the deal would hold.
Yet fears the coronavirus could spread like wildfire across the devastated
country appear to have given the truce an extended lease of life.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the month of March
saw the lowest civilian death toll since the conflict started in 2011, with
103 deaths.
The ability of the multiple administrations in Syria — the Damascus
government, the autonomous Kurdish administration in the northeast and the
jihadist-led alliance that runs Idlib — to manage the coronavirus threat is
key to their credibility.
“This epidemic is a way for Damascus to show that the Syrian state is
efficient and all territories should be returned under its governance,”
analyst Fabrice Balanche said.
However the pandemic and the global mobilisation it requires could
precipitate the departure of US-led troops from Syria and neighbouring Iraq.
This in turn could create a vacuum in which the Islamic State jihadist
group, still reeling from the demise of its “caliphate” a year ago, could
seek to step up its attacks.
YEMEN
The Yemeni government and the Huthi rebels initially responded positively
to the UN appeal for a ceasefire, as did neighbouring Saudi Arabia, which
leads a military coalition in support of the government.
That rare glimmer of hope in the five-year-old conflict was short-lived
however and last week Saudi air defences intercepted ballistic missiles over
Riyadh and a border city fired by the Iran-backed rebels.
The Saudi-led coalition retaliated by striking Huthi targets in the rebel-
held capital Sanaa on Monday.
Talks have repeatedly faltered but the UN envoy Martin Griffiths is
holding daily consultations in a bid to clinch a nationwide ceasefire.
More flare-ups in Yemen could compound a humanitarian crisis often
described as the worst in the world and invite a coronavirus outbreak of
catastrophic proportions.
In a country where the health infrastructure has collapsed, where water is
a rare commodity and where 24 million people require humanitarian assistance,
the population fears being wiped out if a ceasefire doesn’t allow for
adequate aid.
“People will end up dying on the streets, bodies will be rotting in the
open,” said Mohammed Omar, a taxi driver in the Red Sea port city of Hodeida.
LIBYA
Much like Yemen, the main protagonists in the Libyan conflict initially
welcomed the UN ceasefire call but swiftly resumed hostilities.
Fierce fighting has rocked the south of the capital Tripoli in recent
days, suggesting the risk of a major coronavirus outbreak is not enough to
make guns fall silent.
Turkey has recently played a key role in the conflict, throwing its weight
behind the UN-recognised Government of National Accord.
Fabrice Balanche predicted that accelerated Western disengagement from
Middle East conflicts could limit Turkish support to the GNA.
That could eventually favour forces loyal to eastern-based strongman
Khalifa Haftar, who launched an assault on Tripoli one year ago and has the
backing of Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Western countries have been hit hardest by the pandemic, which could
prompt them to divert both military resources and peace-brokering capacity
from foreign conflicts.
A report by the International Crisis Group said European officials had
reported that efforts to secure a ceasefire in Libya were no longer receiving
high-level attention due to the pandemic.
IRAQ
Iraq is no longer gripped by fully-fledged conflict but it remains
vulnerable to an IS resurgence in some regions and its two main foreign
backers are at each other’s throats.
Iran and the United States are two of the countries most affected by the
coronavirus but there has been no sign of any let-up in their battle for
influence that has largely played out on Iraqi soil.
With most non-US troops in the coalition now gone and some bases
evacuated, American personnel are now regrouped in a handful of locations in
Iraq.
Washington has deployed Patriot air defence missiles, prompting fears of a
fresh escalation with Tehran, whose proxies it blames for a spate of rocket
attacks on bases housing US troops.
BSS/AFP/GMR/0936 hrs