ROME, Jan 24, 2020 (BSS/AFP) – Italy’s fragile governing coalition is
bracing for a key regional election this weekend which the far-right League
hopes will trigger a political earthquake and return strongman Matteo Salvini
to power.
The wealthy centre-north region of Emilia Romagna was once the Italian
left’s fiefdom, but while left-wing values still hold sway under the graceful
porticoes of its cities, the right is making serious inroads in the villages
and towns beyond.
The last polls published before the pre-election media blackout showed
the anti-immigrant League neck-and-neck with the centre-left Democratic Party
(PD), which governs Italy in coalition with the anti-establishment Five Star
Movement (M5S).
International markets will be watching closely for potential seismic
change in the eurozone’s third largest economy.
Sunday’s vote “is a big test for the beleaguered coalition” Berenberg
economist Florian Hense told AFP.
“A PD defeat could possibly be the straw that breaks the camel’s back
and spell the end of the coalition,” he said.
The coalition’s main stabilising factor is a joint fear of snap
elections which could hand power to Salvini.
– ‘Risk of implosion’ –
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has dismissed fears of a government crisis
should the League triumph in Emilia Romagna, saying the election concerns the
region alone and has no bearing on national politics.
But a League victory would increase coalition tensions considerably,
with the PD likely to blame the M5S for refusing to join forces behind a
single candidate — thus splitting the anti-Salvini vote.
Analysts have warned it could cause the M5S, which is riven by
infighting and has been hemorrhaging members, to collapse.
“A defeat in Emilia Romagna could speed up their implosion, and if the
government loses its majority at the Senate, it would be difficult to
survive,” Lorenzo Codogno, former chief economist at the Italian Treasury
Department, told AFP.
In a bid to stave off a crisis, M5S head Luigi Di Maio — heavily
criticised by a growing number of party members — bowed to pressure and
stepped down Wednesday as leader.
On Thursday, Conte cancelled his appearance at the World Economic Forum
in Davos, Switzerland, “to attend to urgent government business”.
Salvini meanwhile was confidently predicting victory in the Parma ham
and Parmesan cheese heartland, posting pictures of steaming plates of the
region’s tortellini pasta on Twitter, along with snaps of him canvassing in
red-roofed towns
– Salvini vs Sardines –
The region is the second richest in Italy, with some of the lowest
jobless figures in the country and home to “Made in Italy” success stories
such as Ferrari.
But analysts say it also boasts many family-run, artisanal firms that
have come under pressure from the march of globalisation.
The League leader is determined to return to power. His party had been
governing in coalition with the M5S last year when he pulled the plug in a
failed attempt to spark elections and rule Italy alone.
As he held his final pre-vote rally on Thursday, a boisterous counter-
demonstration was being held by the youth-driven Sardines movement, which has
become a symbol of protest against the far-right firebrand.
The movement sprang up just two months ago in the region’s historic
capital Bologna, when a rally organised by four unknown activists to denounce
Salvini’s discourse of “hatred and division” unexpectedly drew a crowd of
15,000.
Sunday’s vote is being seen by many as pitting Salvini versus the
Sardines.
The League leader has fuelled this narrative by dominating his party’s
campaign, largely overshadowing its candidate Lucia Borgonzoni, 43, whose
name does not even feature on election posters.
That has exasperated the PD, whose candidate Stefano Bonaccini is the
incumbent Emilia Romagna president, and is hoping to win on the back of local
success stories that risk being eclipsed by a Salvini-Sardine showdown.