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All eyes on ‘new way’ in Kim Jong Un’s New Year speech
SEOUL, Dec 30, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – North Korean leader Kim Jong Un will give
his set-piece New Year speech on Wednesday, an opportunity to flesh out the
nuclear-armed nation’s threat to seek a “new way” forward after the
expiration of its year-end deadline for US sanctions relief.
Ahead of the address, Kim told a meeting of top ruling party officials
that “positive and offensive measures for fully ensuring the sovereignty and
security of the country” were needed, the state news agency KCNA reported
Monday.
Nuclear talks between the North and the US have been largely stalled since
the collapse of a February summit between Kim and US President Donald Trump
in Hanoi.
Pyongyang has been demanding the easing of international sanctions imposed
on it over its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, while Washington is
insisting it takes more tangible steps towards giving them up.
The North has not so far specified the “new way” it would adopt if the US
does not offer fresh concessions by the end of the end, and Kim is expected
to make it clearer.
Earlier this month China and Russia — the North’s biggest economic
partners — proposed loosening UN sanctions against Pyongyang, and analysts
say Kim is likely to seek to exploit rivalries between Washington, Beijing
and Moscow.
The “new way” was more likely to be an old way with denuclearisation
firmly off the table, said Henri Feron, Senior Fellow at the Center for
International Policy in the US.
“What North Korea refers to as a new path is new in the sense that it will
differ from its relatively engaging posture the past two years, but will
actually be a return to the posture it maintained notably in the Obama era,”
he told AFP.
“It will focus on developing its military leverage and economic resistance
to sanctions, while demanding unconditional peace and normalisation before
there can be any talk on denuclearisation.”
Speculation has mounted that Pyongyang could abandon its moratorium on
intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests — although its ominous
threat of a “Christmas gift” to the US appears to have fizzled.
US National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien said that Washington would be
“extraordinarily disappointed and we’ll demonstrate that disappointment” if
Pyongyang carries out a long-range missile test.
“But we have a lot of tools in our toolkit, and additional pressure can be
brought to bear on the North Koreans.”
– ‘Fire and Fury 2.0’? –
Wednesday’s speech will be Kim’s eighth New Year address, after he revived
the tradition started by his grandfather — North Korea’s founding leader Kim
Il Sung — but discontinued during his father’s rule.
It is a key moment in the North Korean political calendar, reviewing the
past and setting out goals for the future, and printed in full in the Rodong
Sinmun mouthpiece newspaper.
“Kim’s delivery of New Year’s speeches has evolved over time, from
standing before a pulpit in a party uniform in his early years, to sitting in
an office in a Western-style suit and tie in 2019,” said Rachel Minyoung Lee,
senior analyst at specialist site NK News.
Pyongyang has been ramping up the pressure with static tests at its Sohae
rocket facility and a series of weapons launches, some described as ballistic
missiles by Japan and others — which are banned under UN resolutions.
Lee told AFP North Korea was likely to resume testing longer-range
missiles including ICBMs in 2020, and potentially even nuclear blasts, and
could also carry out “military provocations against South Korea”.
But an ICBM launch would represent a rapid escalation and risks angering
China — which always stresses stability in a region it regards as its own
back yard.
And Trump would not want to go back to his previous “fire and fury”
rhetoric, preferring to reach a deal with Pyongyang, said Joseph Yun, a
former US Special Representative for North Korea under both the Republican
and his predecessor Barack Obama.
“Without doubt, the highest priority for President Trump is getting re-
elected,” he said.
As such, going back to past confrontation “would sully his reputation as a
dealmaker, especially as he has few deals to show, having pulled out of the
Iran nuclear agreement and the Paris Climate Accord”.
BSS/AFP/MSY/1015 hrs