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HONGKONG-ECONOMY
Hong Kong economy on course for weakest quarter in 21 years: survey
HONG KONG, Dec. 4, 2019 (BSS/Xinhua) – A private survey showed Hong Kong
economy is on course for the weakest quarter in 21 years in the fourth
quarter of 2019.
The average reading of Hong Kong’s Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) for
October and November combined stood at 38.9, IHS Markit said Wednesday in a
report, stressing that the level pointed to the weakest quarterly economic
performance since the London-based consulting firm started the survey on the
financial hub in 1998.
PMI fell to 38.5 in November from 39.3 in October, signaling the worst
deterioration in the health of the private sector since April 2003.
Bernard Aw, the principal economist at IHS Markit, said business activity
shrank at the steepest rate on record amid the escalating social unrest and
predicted a GDP fall of 5 percent in the fourth quarter unless there is a
dramatic recovery in December.
“November PMI data indicated that Hong Kong’s private sector suffered its
worst downturn since the 2003 SARS crisis, with the latest survey indicators
painting a picture of gloom for the Special Administrative Region,” Aw said.
In a breakdown of the survey, new sales registered the steepest decline for
11 years as new orders from the Chinese mainland shrank for a 19th straight
month, and employment fell amid a further sharp decline in backlogs of work
while firms continued to make deep cuts to input purchases and inventories.
Business confidence remained close to the record low. Survey respondents
were pessimistic about the business outlook in the year ahead as the unrest
was still likely to disrupt the functioning of businesses.
PMI is a composite single-figure indicator of economic performance derived
from indicators for new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times
and stocks of purchases. Figures greater than 50 indicate overall improvement
of the economy.
BSS/XINHUA/HR/1550