BAGHDAD, Nov 18, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – It posted tens of thousands of troops in
Iraq, huddled with its leaders and helped craft its laws — but with the
country swamped by deadly protests, Washington is staying out of the fray.
Its apparent absence during a key turning point in Iraq lays bare how much
its interests and influence have waned since the 2003 US-led invasion that
opened the door to fellow Shiite-majority neighbour Iran.
“The (US-Iraq) gulf has never been so big, and keeps getting bigger,” a
senior Iraqi official told AFP on condition of anonymity.
After the invasion, the US effectively dismantled and rebuilt the Iraqi
state, ushering in a new class of political elites with whom it crafted close
personal links.
It trained a new military, deploying more than 170,000 troops to Iraq at
its peak before withdrawing in 2011.
Since then, American soldiers helped Iraq defeat jihadists and US officials
conferred closely with their counterparts on the 2017 Kurdish independence
referendum, the 2018 parliamentary vote and the ensuing cabinet formation.
Now, protesters across Baghdad and the Shiite-majority south are demanding
an overhaul of the US-crafted system, but the US has remained comparatively
restrained.
It has issued a half-dozen statements condemning violence but stopped short
of using its diplomatic muscle to resolve the crisis.
In the past, Washington would have been “much more overt,” the top Iraqi
official told AFP.
“The US back in 2003 shaped this current Iraqi government structure, which
delivered this political class,” he said.
“Do they want to be engaged in rectifying it? I think the jury is still
out.”
– Fraying friendships –
“The bottom line is that the US state-building project in Iraq has failed,”
said Kirk Sowell, an analyst who writes the Inside Iraqi Politics newsletter.
Since protests erupted on October 1, more than 330 people have died,
authorities have imposed an internet blackout, and activists have been
threatened and kidnapped.
Last week, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo telephoned Prime Minister Adel
Abdel Mahdi and “deplored the death toll”, but four protesters were killed
the next day.
Perhaps most worrying for the US is the role of Major General Qasem
Soleimani, Iran’s pointman for Iraq, in brokering deals among political
forces in Baghdad.
“US influence is not really zero, but it is negligible during the current
crisis,” said Sowell.
That is partly because Iraq has filled out its own institutions and US
troop numbers have drastically dropped, said Robert Ford of the Middle East
Institute.
Ford was a diplomat at the sprawling US embassy in Iraq between 2004-2006
and 2008-2010.
But the mission now sits mostly empty after an ordered US withdrawal in
May, as tensions rose between Tehran and Washington over the former’s nuclear
ambitions.
“That in and of itself shows US interests are reduced,” he told AFP.
There is also little shared history between current Iraqi officials and the
administration of President Donald Trump, unlike with previous US
governments.
“I don’t think President Trump could pick up the phone, talk to Abdel Mahdi
and rely on old times together or face-to-face meetings,” said Ford.
– ‘Kiss of death’ –
In fact, Iraqi and US officials say ties between the White House and the
premier’s office are at their “coldest” since 2003.
They say the White House has postponed a bilateral meeting at least three
times because it was “angry” Abdel Mahdi was not distancing himself more from
Iran.
But among a political class with deep, decades-old ties to Iran, Abdel
Mahdi is “probably the best we could hope for”, a senior State Department
official told AFP.
Tehran and its Iraqi allies, including armed groups, depict any party seen
as close to the US as a “conspirator” seeking instability, making it
politically costly to cosy up to Washington.
“Iraqi actors used to want others to know they had access to the US. Now,
it’s the kiss of death,” said Ramzy Mardini of the United States Institute of
Peace.
That logic also applies to the current anti-government demonstrators, which
Iran-backed parties have sought to paint as US-backed “agents”.
Western officials in Baghdad told AFP they were wary of signaling open
support for the protesters because of such claims.
Demonstrators have directed their ire at the governing political class but
also on perceived Iranian overreach, a dimension Washington has welcomed
without explicitly backing the rallies.
Direct criticism of the US, surprisingly, has been rare — even though it
was the main architect of the system.
That could change if rallies continue to be met with violence.
“The legacy for the younger generation is that it will see the US put out
talking points, but not take action,” said Mardini.
“It makes it harder for US policymakers to regain the trust of the future
political class.”