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SPAIN-VOTE
Spain to hold fresh election under cloud of Catalan crisis
MADRID, Nov 7, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Spain heads to the polls Sunday for its
fourth election in as many years, in a vote overshadowed by the ongoing
Catalan crisis which has boosted support for the far-right Vox.
The November 10 ballot seeks to draw a line under months of political
deadlock following an inconclusive April election won by Prime Minister Pedro
Sanchez’s Socialists but without a majority and unable to form a new
government.
And surveys suggest a similar outcome on Sunday, with Sanchez’s Socialists
seen in pole position but still unable to secure an absolute majority.
– Vox to double its seats? –
This time, however, the emerging political constellation is likely to be
less favourable for Sanchez, largely due to the Catalan crisis which erupted
in mid-October when Spain’s top court jailed nine separatist leaders over a
failed 2017 independence bid, sparking a wave of violent protest.
Polls show the unrest has played into the hands of Vox, which had been a
very marginal player until April when it entered parliament with 24 seats in
a remarkable revival for the far-right which had spent decades in the
doldrums since Francisco Franco’s death in 1975.
In recent days, Sanchez has repeatedly raised the alarm about Vox’s
“aggressive ultra-rightwing” policies, warning the party would drag the
country back to the dark days of Franco’s dictatorship.
“It is crucial that we mobilise for this election to stop the far-right,”
he said.
Images of Barcelona in flames with masked youths fighting running battles
with riot police have played firmly into the hands of Vox, which wants to ban
all separatist movements and has astutely emphasised the national unity card.
“Catalonia has been the main issue and this seems to have benefited Vox
because it has taken a very tough approach which has attracted the most
hardline rightwing voters,” said Teneo analyst Antonio Barroso.
Polls suggest the faction could double its showing and take nearly 50 of
the parliament’s 350 seats.
As the nightly protests continued, Sanchez came under increasing pressure
from the rightwing conservative People’s Party (PP) and the centre-right
Ciudadanos to suspend Catalonia’s autonomy and remove its separatist
president Quim Torra.
Despite exercising restraint, Sanchez has toughened his rhetoric and has
sent reinforcements to the region to prevent protesters from picketing
polling stations.
Although all rallies have been banned on the eve of the vote, protest
group Democratic Tsunami — which swamped Barcelona airport with 10,000
protesters — has called for Saturday to be a day of civil disobedience
across the region. – Prolonged political paralysis –
There is a risk Sunday’s vote may end up prolonging the political
paralysis that has gripped the eurozone’s fourth-largest economy since the
December 2015 election which saw Ciudadanos and the far-left Podemos entering
parliament, ending three decades of bipartisan hegemony by PP and the
Socialists.
Even by joining forces, neither the left — the Socialists, Podemos and
newcomer Mas Pais — nor the right — PP, Ciudadanos and Vox — are expected
to win enough seats to secure a majority, polls predict.
Last time, the Socialists and Podemos spent months locked in talks but
were unable to bridge their differences, sparking bitter recriminations that
would be tough to overcome.
To be sworn in as premier, Sanchez would need the support of 176
lawmakers, a good 50 more than his Socialists are predicted to win in
Sunday’s ballot.
That would leave only one other apparent option: for the PP to abstain in
any investiture vote, allowing Sanchez to form a minority government with
outside support from Podemos.
The fear of yet more elections will “force the parties at the last minute
to negotiate an abstention”, said Jose Ignacio Torreblanca, head of the
Madrid office of the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.
But Barroso said such a minority government “would never complete its
(four-year) term”.
“And with such instability, no reforms could be undertaken that would
prepare us for the next recession,” he warned, referring to the slowdown of
Spain’s economy and its recent negative employment figures.
BSS/AFP/FI/ 1053 hrs