ZCZC
BFF-07
CLIMATE-ENVIRONMENT-EMISSIONS-BUBBLE
Energy giants face 35% output cut to hit Paris climate goals: watchdog
PARIS, Nov 1, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – The biggest listed oil and gas giants must
slash production by more than a third by 2040 to keep emissions within
targets laid out in the landmark Paris climate deal, an industry watchdog
said Friday.
Climate Tracker, a Britain-based think tank, said that current rates of
emissions from the energy majors would see the world’s carbon budgets
surpassed within decades due to an inexorable rise in oil and gas output.
The 2015 Paris deal enjoins nations to limit temperature rises to “well
below” two degrees Celsius (3.6 Farenheit) and to a safer cap of 1.5C if at
all possible.
In order to hit these targets, the world must undergo a drastic drawdown
in emissions of planet warming greenhouse gases.
Because carbon dioxide contributes to global warming at a known and
predictable rate, scientists can calculate Earth’s “carbon budget” for a
range of temperature rise scenarios.
Carbon Tracker estimated that a current emissions rates — and emissions
are still rising annually — the carbon budget for a 1.5C temperature rise
will be exceeded in 13 years.
For 1.75C — already a level deemed far from safe by the world’s leading
scientists — that budget gets exceeded in 24 years, according to the
watchdog.
It used the International Energy Association’s BD2S climate scenario to
predict a rise of 1.6C, then compared that to data assessing the emissions
trajectories of major oil and gas projects. The analysis showed that the
listed majors on average needed to cut production by 35 percent within two
decades to stick to the 1.6-C path.
“There’s a finite limit for any carbon that can be released for any given
level of global warming and that implies that if we are going to have a good
result under Paris or any other climate target, fossil fuel production is
going to need to shrink,” Andrew Grant, senior oil and gas analyst at Carbon
Tracker, told AFP.
“While companies may all say they support Paris — whatever that means —
they still plan to keep producing more oil, gas and coal.”
– Reduced intensity, more fuel? –
The study found that the needed production cuts varied significantly
between companies.
ConocoPhillips, a US petrol giant, faces cuts of 85 percent by 2040,
whereas British-Dutch major Shell would only need a reduction of 10 percent,
it said.
A ConocoPhillips statement to AFP said it “continue(s) to manage GHG
emissions in our operations and to integrate climate change-related
activities and goals into our business planning.”
A Shell spokeswoman said the company did not make production projections.
“What we have been clear about already however is our ambition to reduce
our net carbon footprint, and have introduced short term targets against
which we will measure progress,” she told AFP.
Most listed energy firms insist their business plans are in line with the
Paris climate goals.
Several companies have committed to reducing the intensity of emissions,
while leaving the door open for increased production with energy demand set
to rise for decades yet.
“At the same time as reducing that intensity they are getting bigger and
want to produce more fuel,” said Grant.
The report found ExxonMobil faces a 55 percent production cut to stay on
course for the Paris climate targets. Italian giant ENI and Chevron face 40-
percent and 35-percent reductions respectively, it found.
A Chevron spokesperson told AFP: “We are taking action to address climate
change by lowering the company’s carbon intensity, increasing our use of
renewable energy and investing in breakthrough technologies.”
An ENI spokesman said it was undertaking “material actions to reduce our
carbon footprint”, in particular a commitment to reduce its assets’ carbon
intensity 43 percent by 2025.
ExxonMobil did not provide comment.
BSS/AFP/FI/ 0833 hrs