HONG KONG, Oct 17, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Sterling edged up Thursday as Britain
and the European Union appeared close to a Brexit agreement, though investors
remain on edge with any deal possibly facing strong opposition in
Westminster.
After years of wrangling, the two sides said Wednesday they were edging
towards the basis for a treaty allowing Britain to avoid crashing out of the
bloc at the end of the month, which most observers say would be economically
catastrophic.
EU negotiator Michel Barnier said there had been “good progress, and work
is ongoing”, while another European official said: “We’re almost there.”
In early Asian trade, the pound was sitting around highs not seen since
May against the dollar.
Hopes for an agreement come as the two work towards a solution to the
vexed question of British-ruled Northern Ireland, with sources saying they
were still trying to iron out details.
However, while Prime Minister Boris Johnson could strike a deal ahead of
an EU summit that starts Thursday, there are warnings he will have a tough
sell to MPs back home, particularly the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP),
whose support he relies on to pass legislation.
“This could be the ‘white smoke’ moment where we see the outline of an
agreement and can judge the likelihood of domestic ratification,” said
Stephen Innes at AxiTrader.
“If an outline of a Brexit deal is announced, the next question is, can it
pass in an ‘indicative’ (non-binding) vote as early as Saturday? The position
of the DUP will be crucial.”
– Hopes for Fed rate cut –
The DUP are against any deal that would tie Northern Ireland to EU rules
but cut the rest of the United Kingdom loose.
And Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA, said: “The DUP holds
the balance of power and thus their voice counts much more than it otherwise
would. Without them, the entire edifice crumbles, and we are back to the
Groundhog Day Brexit extension and negotiation cycle.”
Asian equity markets were mostly lower after recent gains but Hong Kong
was supported after US retail data missed forecasts and boosted expectations
for another Federal Reserve interest rate cut. Comments in the Fed’s Beige
Book update on the economy also pointed to a slowdown.
Hong Kong rose one percent and Shanghai added 0.1 percent with Tokyo also
up 0.1 percent at the break. Jakarta also gained.
But Sydney dropped 0.5 percent with Seoul, Singapore, Taipei and Manila
all off 0.1 percent.
Speculation about a possible US rate cut provided support to higher-
yielding currencies against the dollar, with the Australian dollar 0.7
percent up and the South Korean won 0.2 percent stronger.
Oil prices fell after data pointed to a sharp rise in US stockpiles that
reinforced worries about the impact on demand from the China-US trade war and
the global economic slowdown.
– Key figures around 0300 GMT –
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2827 from $1.2817 at 2100 GMT
Euro/pound: UP at 86.40 pence from 86.33 pence
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1082 from $1.1073
Dollar/yen: UP at 108.75 yen from 108.71 yen
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.1 percent at 22,503.97 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng: UP 1.0 percent at 26,931.64
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 2,981.97
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 48 cents at $52.88 per barrel
Brent North Sea crude: DOWN 40 cents at $59.02 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.1 percent at 27,001.98 (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 7,167.95 (close)