HONG KONG, Oct 16, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – The pound held most of its gains
Wednesday after hitting a five-month high on growing hopes that Britain and
the EU are close to a Brexit deal, while equity markets remained buoyed
despite signs of fresh China-US tensions over Hong Kong.
Sterling surged Tuesday as negotiators voiced optimism that they could
strike an agreement that would avoid Britain crashing out of the European
Union at the end of the month.
With the two sides hunkered down in Brussels, Johnson’s office said he had
held a “constructive” and “good discussion” with France’s Emmanuel Macron,
who also hailed “positive momentum” for the talks.
EU negotiator Michel Barnier said a text must be on the table by early
Wednesday if it is to be put before leaders at the two-day EU summit starting
Thursday.
But officials said talks could always resume next week and a special
summit be called just in time for Johnson to fulfil his pledge to lead
Britain out of the bloc on October 31.
The developments indicate some sort of agreement on the vexed question of
Northern Ireland in the divorce, which had been holding up negotiations.
Signs of a breakthrough sent sterling rallying to $1.28 in London, a level
not touched since May, and while it has tailed off slightly, the unit remains
relatively healthy, with some observers tipping it to soar if a deal is
reached.
“It may still tease and disappoint us, but it seems increasingly likely
that an acceptable draft Brexit agreement may emanate from the corridors of
power in Brussels shortly,” said OANDA senior market analyst Jeffrey Halley.
He added that if a deal emerges that is acceptable to parliament
“Sterling’s upside is substantial, with the top of the previous post-Brexit
vote bounce, $1.45, in the top of my mind”.
However, he warned against “over-exuberance at these levels until we see
something in black and white. A disappointment now will see much of those…
gains evaporate as quickly as they appeared”.
– Hong Kong fears –
Brexit hopes were also providing some support to equity markets in Asia on
Wednesday, with Tokyo and Sydney more than one percent higher and Singapore
0.7 percent up.
There were also strong gains in Seoul, Taipei, Wellington, Manila and
Jakarta.
A rally on Wall Street helped buying sentiment following a strong start to
US earnings season.
Hong Kong and Shanghai also climbed. But investors were moving cautiously
after China said it would take “strong measures” after the US House of
Representatives passed a bill sought by pro-democracy protesters in Hong Kong
that aims to defend civil rights in the city.
If passed by the Senate, the law would end the Hong Kong-US special
trading status unless the State Department certifies annually that city
authorities are respecting human rights and the rule of law.
Foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said in a statement that the US
should “stop meddling”.
The move fanned concerns that the issue could muddy the waters in China-US
trade talks, just days after the two reached a mini agreement.
“While considering Hong Kong a separate trading entity is still an
implausible scenario at this point… it could potentially derail trade talks
indefinitely regardless of who’s in power after election 2020,” said Stephen
Innes at AxiTrader.
Adding to the sense of unease was a report saying China wanted the US to
remove the threat of new tariffs slated for December before it could ramp up
its purchase of agricultural goods, which was part of Friday’s agreement.
The Bloomberg News story cited sources as saying Beijing would not buy the
$40-$50 billion of products Donald Trump claimed it would unless the levies
were lifted.
– Key figures around 0230 GMT –
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2754 from $1.2781 at 2100 GMT
Euro/pound: UP at 86.49 pence from 86.29 pence
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1028 from $1.1030
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 108.70 yen from 108.84 yen
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.5 percent at 22,545.74 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng: UP 0.4 percent at 26,609.98
Shanghai – Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 2,994.83
West Texas Intermediate: UP 11 cents at $52.92 per barrel
Brent North Sea crude: UP 12 cents at $58.86 per barrel
New York – Dow: UP 0.9 percent at 27,024.80 (close)
London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 7,211.64 (close)