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Surging dollar hits some emerging economies
NEW YORK, May 30, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – The strengthening of the dollar amid
Federal Reserve interest rate hikes has sharpened pressure on some emerging
economies as investors steer funds to the United States.
Funds dedicated to emerging economy equity and debt saw withdrawals of
$569 million and $253 million during the week of May 23, according to data
firm EPFR Global.
That is on top of the $1.6 billion and $2.1 billion taken from the same
funds during the week ending May 9.
“The primary explanation for these capital outflows comes from the rising
dollar,” said Eric Viloria, a strategist at Wells Fargo.
Higher US interest rates have prompted investors to rethink investments in
smaller economies.
“You do not feel the urge to invest in emerging markets when investing in
much lower-risk US assets offers you higher returns,” said Chris Low, chief
economist at FTN Financial.
The trend marks a shift from the period after the financial crisis when
low interest rates in the US gave incentive to investors to seek higher yield
overseas, especially in emerging economies.
– Argentina, Turkey suffer –
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury is back up at around three percent
after hitting an all-time low in July 2016 of 1.3 percent.
The biggest losers from the current dynamic have been Argentina and
Turkey, according to the Institute of International Finance. Those two
countries have lost 22 and 19 percent of the value of their currencies since
the start of April.
These countries have responded by sharply increasing interest rates, a
move not without risk to their own economies.
Argentina’s Central Bank lifted the rate of a key lending rate to 40
percent as it has sought loans from the International Monetary Fund.
Turkey’s Central Bank last Wednesday boosted its lending rate from 13.5
percent to 16.5 percent despite a push from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
who has sought low rates to boost growth.
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The sharp fall in the currencies’ value has come as Turkey heads to June
24 presidential and parliamentary elections where Erdogan is seeking a new
mandate and a thumping parliamentary majority.
“Turkey is burdened by a large current account deficit, foreign currency
denominated debt more than three times larger than its foreign exchange
reserves, and double-digit inflation,” said Low of FTN Financial.
Turkey has “country-specific” challenges that preceded the dollar’s rally,
said Andres Abadia, senior international economist, PantheonMacro.
Argentina too has suffered from annual inflation of more than 20 percent
and large trade and budget deficits. The country also remembers well the
painful crisis that led to a debt default in 2001.
According to a recent note by Oxford Economics, more than half the
movement of the Argentine and Turkish currencies is due to elevated risk in
those countries.
By contrast, other emerging economies, including Russia, Poland and
Malaysia have seen their currencies fall less precipitously against the
dollar because their economies are in better shape.
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