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After Dorian, US weather service rocked by political storm
WASHINGTON, Sept 10, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Dorian may have blown out to sea,
but the US weather service now finds itself buffeted by strong political
winds, with senior government meteorologists in open rebellion against Donald
Trump.
It all started on September 1, when the president tweeted that states
including Alabama “will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated” a
few days after the fierce Atlantic storm became a hurricane.
Exactly 20 minutes later, the National Weather Service in Birmingham,
Alabama tweeted directly contradicting the president: “Alabama will NOT see
any impacts from #Dorian. We repeat, no impacts from Hurricane #Dorian will
be felt across Alabama.”
Trump hit back with eight more tweets in the following days, and a now
infamous episode in which he presented a forecasting map that was doctored to
include the southern state, apparently using a black Sharpie pen.
Dorian never touched Alabama, but by Friday, the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration, the agency which oversees the NWS, backed Trump
and chastised the authors of the tweet from NWS Birmingham for dealing in
“absolute terms.”
The probability of relatively strong winds hitting Alabama ranged from
zero to 20 percent at the time of the NWS tweet — but there was no
prediction for hurricane force winds.
That has not stopped commerce secretary Wilbur Ross from threatening to
fire senior officials if they do not issue a public communique defending the
president, the New York Times reported Monday.
– Standing ovation –
Meteorologists were stunned by what they saw as political interference,
and the head of the NWS, Louis Uccellini, publicly defended his employees at
an annual conference held Monday — in Alabama.
“When the phones and the social media lit up about 10:00 am Central Time
on September 1st, they did what any office would do,” he said. “With an
emphasis they deemed essential, they shut down what they thought were
rumors.”
Birmingham office did this to stop public panic, to ensure public safety,
the same goal as all the National Weather Service offices were working toward
at that time,” he added, before asking the audience to join him in applauding
those responsible.
The hall responded with a standing ovation.
“This has become a political situation, and it shouldn’t be, because we’re
trying to save lives,” Bill Murray, the president of the Weather Factory
private forecasting firm in Birmingham, who attended the meeting, told AFP.
“We totally stand with the National Weather Service in Birmingham, all
meteorologists do,” he added.
Crucial policy decisions depend on weather forecasts — and the stakes are
even higher when it comes to hurricanes, which are tracked by the National
Hurricane Center in Miami, a small operation based in Miami that falls under
the NOAA.
The NHC’s predictions about possible hurricane pathways lead in turn to
evacuation zones, and creating a zone that is too small based on a faulty
forecast can cost lives.
But erring too greatly on the side of the caution can spread panic and
lead to the unnecessary movement of millions of people.
Trajectory predictions have come a long way in recent years — the
expected forecast accuracy for a hurricane hitting in three days is about the
same as it was for a one and a half day forecast just over a decade ago.
For Murray, Dorian was in fact a “success story” because meteorologists
helped minimize disruption, particularly in Florida where Miami Airport was
never shut down.
Trump tweeted over the weekend that the so-called “Sharpie-gate” scandal
was “fake news” kept alive artificially by a hostile media.
The affair however could continue Tuesday when Neil Jacobs, the head of
the NOAA, is set to speak at the same conference.
BSS/AFP/FI/1235 hrs