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UK stands to lose $16 bn on EU exports in case of no-deal Brexit: UN
GENEVA, Sept 4, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Britain could lose at least $16 billion
annually on exports to the European Union if it leaves without a deal and
possibly billions more on trade beyond the bloc, UN economists said Tuesday.
In a fresh report, the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
found that “a loss of preferences in the EU market consequent to a no-deal
Brexit will result in UK export losses of at least $16 billion” (14.6 billion
euros), representing seven percent of its overall exports to the bloc.
The economists said “this is a conservative estimate,” since it only takes
into account the raising of tariffs from the current zero percent that
Britain pays on exports within the EU.
“In reality, the losses would be much greater because of non-tariff
measures, border controls and disruption of existing UK-EU production
networks,” they warned.
The UNCTAD economists said Britain’s total merchandise exports last year
stood at around $450 billion, and that its exports to other EU countries
accounted for about half of that amount.
The report was released as British Prime Minister Boris Johnson lost his
working majority in parliament ahead of a showdown with rebel MPs over fears
he is steering the country towards a no-deal Brexit next month, which could
lead to a snap election within weeks.
– ‘Brexit crunch’ –
“The nearing Brexit deadline, along with increased uncertainty on
outcomes, is problematic for UK exporters,” UNCTAD said in a statement,
urging London to quickly seek policy solutions to provide at least short-term
relief to the “Brexit crunch”.
The economists said that most of the British losses in the EU market would
be concentrated in motor vehicles, which would take a $5-billion hit; meat
and other animal products as well as the apparel and textile sector, which
are both set to suffer losses of around $2 billion.
At the same time, the report cautioned that British exporters also stand
to take a significant hit on trade beyond the EU.
Through its EU membership, Britain today is part of around 40 trade
agreements offering members of the bloc preferential market access in about
70 countries.
“In the event of a no-deal Brexit, and in the absence of replacement
agreements (rollover deals), the UK would abruptly lose preferential access
to these markets and, by default, would have to export under World Trade
Organization Most Favoured Nation (MFN) tariffs,” the report said.
Most of Britain’s exports beyond the EU go to countries that do not
currently give preferential treatment to the bloc, including China and the
United States.
But about 20 percent of the country’s non-EU exports are at risk of facing
higher tariffs from countries such as Turkey, South Africa, Canada and
Mexico, UNCTAD said, estimating that this could cost the British economy
nearly $2 billion in exports.
BSS/AFP/HR/1045