IMF revises growth forecasts upward for developing economies


DHAKA, July 24, 2017 (BSS)-The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised upward its growth forecasts for the emerging and developing economies this year and next though it kept the growth forecasts for the global economy unchanged for the period.

Emerging and developing economies are projected to see a sustained pickup in activity, with growth rising from 4.3 percent in 2016 to 4.6 percent in 2017 and 4.8 percent in 2018, said the IMF in its updated World Economic Outlook (WEO) released today.

These forecasts reflect upward revisions, relative to April, of 0.2 percentage point for 2016, and 0.1 percentage point for 2017.

“While risks around the global growth forecast appear broadly balanced in the near term, they remain skewed to the downside over the medium term,” said the IMF.

The IMF said global gross domestic product would be 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018.

It said economic activity in both advanced economies and emerging and developing economies is forecast to accelerate in 2017, to 2.0 percent and 4.6 percent respectively, with global growth projected to be 3.5 percent, unchanged from the April forecast.

The growth forecast for 2018 is 1.9 percent for advanced economies, 0.1 percentage point below the April 2017 WEO, and 4.8 percent for emerging and developing economies, the same as in the spring.

The 2018 global growth forecast is unchanged at 3.6 percent, the IFM said.

The growth forecast in the United States has been revised down from 2.3 percent to 2.1 percent in 2017 and from 2.5 percent to 2.1 percent in 2018.

By contrast, growth projections for 2017 have been revised up for many euro area countries, including France, Germany, Italy, and Spain, where growth for the first quarter of 2017 was generally above expectation.

China’s growth is expected to remain at 6.7 percent in 2017, the same level as in 2016, and to decline only modestly in 2018 to 6.4 percent.

Growth in India is forecast to pick up further in 2017 and 2018, in line with the April 2017 forecast.

Growth in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region is projected to slow considerably in 2017, reflecting primarily a slowdown in activity in oil exporters, before recovering in 2018.