WASHINGTON, July 5, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – After nearly two decades in
Afghanistan, the United States is racing to reach an agreement with the
Taliban within two months but a broader peace deal for the war-ravaged
country looks far more elusive.
President Donald Trump, in a rare position widely backed by the rival
Democratic Party, is impatient to pull the remaining 14,000 US troops out of
Afghanistan, believing nothing more can be achieved from the military
operation launched after the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States.
On a visit to Kabul in late June, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that
the US is seeking a deal with the Islamist extremist Taliban by September 1 –
– before Afghanistan’s elections, which could throw in a new element of
chaos.
US negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad has met seven times with the Taliban and, in
a potentially major first step, the insurgents have agreed to meet a wide
range of Afghans starting Sunday in Qatar.
The Taliban have steadfastly refused to negotiate with the internationally
recognized government in Kabul.
In Doha, any Afghan officials will participate in “personal capacity and on
equal footing” with the Taliban, according to Germany, which organized the
meeting alongside Qatar.
“I think there is a strong possibility that there could be an agreement
between the US and the Taliban even sooner than September, but an agreement
that is just between the US and the Taliban is not a peace agreement for
Afghanistan,” said Laurel Miller, who served as the US special representative
for Afghanistan and Pakistan under both Trump and his predecessor Barack
Obama.
“It doesn’t address the really hard questions of what role the Taliban is
going to play or not play in governing Afghanistan and what happens to the
current government and system of government that the United States helped set
up,” said Miller, now the Asia program director at the International Crisis
Group.
The apparent US breakthrough with the Taliban is simply because the Trump
administration made a concession by agreeing to negotiate even though the
insurgents are not talking to Kabul, she said. – Question marks on future –
An agreement with the Taliban is expected to have two main points — a US
withdrawal from Afghanistan and a commitment by the militants not to provide
a base for terrorists, the main reason for the US invasion 18 years ago.
The United States, which by some estimates has spent $1 trillion in
Afghanistan, will likely try to insist in the agreement that the Taliban open
negotiations with President Ashraf Ghani’s government.
But Scott Smith, deputy director of the Afghanistan program at the US
Institute of Peace, said that neither the Taliban nor Kabul has prepared much
for negotiations on what the country will look like.
“I don’t think anybody has thought about that too far, and certainly not
the main parties,” he said.
“It’s like putting together a jigsaw puzzle where you start with the
corners and gradually the details get filled in. We’re still looking for the
corners,” he said.
Michael Kugelman, deputy director for Asia at the Woodrow Wilson
International Center for Scholars, said the example of war-torn nations such
as Colombia showed it can take years if not decades to broker peace
agreements.
“Given that we’re talking about pretty significant issues like a Taliban
ceasefire and a willingness of the Taliban to engage with Kabul, I would be
astounded that there would be a comprehensive peace deal with the Taliban by
September 1,” he said, while adding that a limited accord with Washington was
within reach.
– ‘Policeman’ no more –
Trump, in a recent interview on Fox News, said that the United States
should not be “the policeman for the whole world” and complained that China
has benefited by extracting minerals in Afghanistan.
But he also said that the United States would maintain “very strong
intelligence” after pulling troops, and that “great-looking, central-casting”
generals often warn him of extremist threats that can emerge from
Afghanistan.
The Taliban, believing they have an upper hand, have kept up violence even
while talking to the United States.
An attack Monday that targeted the defense ministry damaged five schools,
with six people killed and scores of people including 50 children hurt mainly
by flying glass.
Miller, the former envoy, said that the Taliban could become even more
emboldened if it signs a deal with the United States.
“Once the US agrees to a timeline for withdrawal, automatically American
leverage in anything that happens subsequently in the process is reduced,”
she said.