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Trade and horse-trade: Top five hot-button G20 issues
OSAKA, Japan, June 28, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Global trade, geopolitical
hotspots and even horse-trading over top EU jobs: G20 leaders have a lot of
their plate when they meet from Friday in Osaka.
Here are some of the most pressing issues facing the leaders at the two-
day meeting, with the decisive action likely to take place mainly on the
sidelines.
– ‘Tariffs and trade’ –
All eyes will be on whether the US and China, the world’s top two
economies, can bury the hatchet in their long-running trade war that is
causing headwinds for an already fragile global economy.
The two leaders, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, will hold talks on the
sidelines of the Osaka summit, their first face-to-face meeting since
December at the last G20 in Argentina.
Experts are sceptical that a definitive deal will be struck in Japan, but
many believe they may agree on a tariff truce and set a new deadline for a
final agreement.
Trade will also feature heavily as a point of conflict in the wider G20
meeting with battles likely over the wording of the final statement — if the
leaders can agree on one.
A G20 finance ministers meeting earlier this month noted in a communique
that trade tensions had “intensified” and that risks were “tilted to the
downside”, but even this statement took 30 hours of hard-fought wrangling.
– Letter from Pyongyang –
Relations between the United States and North Korea have been in the
freezer since a summit in Hanoi in February failed to achieve progress on
Pyongyang’s nuclear programme.
But a recent exchange of letters between Trump and North Korean leader Kim
Jong Un has raised hopes that a third summit could be on the cards, and the
US president is travelling to South Korea immediately after the G20.
Xi arrives in Osaka fresh from his first visit to Pyongyang and observers
expect he may pass on a message from Kim to rekindle diplomatic activity.
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– Iranian powder keg –
With key regional players such as the United States, Saudi Arabia and
Russia in attendance, the mounting tensions with Iran are certain to be a hot
topic of conversation.
The G20 host, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, sought to play a
mediation role with a historic trip to Tehran, but this was overshadowed by
two attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman that Washington blames on Iran.
At the last moment, Trump called off a planned military retaliation for
the downing of an unmanned US drone, saying that the estimated death toll of
150 was not proportionate.
And on Friday, he said there was “no rush” to calm tensions with Iran.
“Hopefully in the end it’s going to work out,” he added.
EU President Donald Tusk warned that the tensions were a “serious concern”
and urged Iran to comply with a nuclear deal despite Washington’s decision to
withdraw from it.
– Climate change wrangling –
Hosts Japan are hoping to achieve consensus on the increasingly
contentious issue of climate change action.
But they will struggle to unite European leaders like French President
Emmanuel Macron, who has said he wants to see ambitious language on climate
change action, and Trump, who plans to withdraw Washington from the Paris
climate agreement.
Macron has said including a reference to the Paris deal on lowering
emissions is a “red line”, and a German government source admitted
negotiations are “particularly difficult this year”.
Last year’s G20 communique saw all members but the US refer to the Paris
deal as “irreversible”, with Washington inserting a line reiterating its
commitment to withdrawing from the agreement.
– ‘Brussels horse-trading’ –
After failing to agree a deal for the successor to European Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker at a summit on Friday, EU leaders have kicked
the can down the road to a special meeting in Brussels on June 30.
But Tusk confirmed Friday that conversations would continue with top EU
leaders at the G20, adding that he had held “12 or 13 phone calls” with other
EU players.
“What I feel is that we are closer to the solution but still too far to
say something more concrete today.”
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