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LIBYA-CONFLICT,INTERVIEW
Libya’s warring rivals in ‘existential fight’ for Tripoli
TRIPOLI, June 4, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Two months after launching a surprise
assault on the Libyan capital Tripoli, the forces of strongman Khalifa Haftar
are locked in a stalemate at the gates of the city.
Their initial lightning advance was stalled by militias backing the
internationally recognised unity government, which rushed in to prevent
Haftar from establishing what they deemed a new “military dictatorship”.
The fighting has left more than 600 dead and 3,200 wounded, according to a
Monday report from the World Health Organization.
With frontline positions fixed and fighting stalled, both sides have
refused to negotiate a truce over fears their “own survival” is at risk,
according to the International Crisis Group’s Libya expert Claudia Gazzini.
AFP spoke with her in Tripoli about the conflict.
– Is military win possible? –
“When Haftar forces launched their offensive on Tripoli, they were
banking on a swift entry into the capital and considerable international
support.
They did not expect armed groups from two military power centres near
Tripoli — Zintan and Misrata — would stand in their way.
But the latter did, and over time other fighters from across western Libya
also mobilised to prevent Haftar forces from taking the capital.
With both sides now seemingly equally numbered and equipped with comparable
military arsenal, the fighting has stalemated around the southern suburbs of
the capital with neither side able to make a breakthrough.
In the current trajectory, it is highly unlikely that either side will
prevail.
Obviously this could change if one side begins to receive substantial
military aid or is able to deploy more, or better trained, fighters.”
– What if stalemate lasts? –
“In normal circumstances a military stalemate should be an incentive to
accept ceasefire negotiations.
However, in the case of the battle in Tripoli neither Haftar-led forces
nor the Tripoli-based government have accepted to embark in talks in large
part because they both view this war as an existential fight.
For Haftar, anything short of the capture of the capital would be
comparable to a military defeat and this could tarnish his own standing in
eastern Libya where his Libyan National Army (LNA) is based.
It would also dampen his political project to unify Libya under his
control.
For the Tripoli-based Government of National Accord, allowing forces
allied to Haftar to remain in the outskirts of Tripoli entails recognising
the LNA’s de-facto conquest of a large part of western Libya and enabling
them to attack the government once they have resupplied — two scenarios that
would put at risk the government’s own survival and that of its military
allies.
Their rejection of a ceasefire is also due to the fact that both feel
victorious and confident that their respective international backers will
continue to support them.
These are: the UAE, Egypt and Saudi Arabia on Haftar’s side, and Turkey
and Qatar on the Tripoli government’s side.
This means that rather than a cessation of hostilities, in the near future
we are likely to see an escalation with increased foreign support.
The net result would be a proxy war reflecting a primary geopolitical rift
in the Gulf region, with no guaranteed winner.
For the residents of Tripoli, this would mean having to suffer the brunt
of continued shelling, the displacement of thousands of families (on top of
the 17,000 already displaced) and possibly also a breakdown in public
services.”
– Role of international community? –
“International efforts to pressure Haftar to stop his siege on Tripoli have
so far failed.
Rather than condemning Haftar for seeking to forcibly remove the UN-backed
government, the White House threw its weight behind him in mid-April.
This has had a domino effect in paralysing the UN Security Council from
passing a resolution calling for a ceasefire and has also induced European
capitals to refrain from explicitly denouncing Haftar’s offensive or call for
the withdrawal of his forces from Western Libya, a demand made by the Tripoli
government.
With the GNA and the LNA refusing to halt hostilities and amid diplomatic
paralysis, the war in and around Tripoli is likely to drag on.
A first step to reverse this current escalatory dynamic requires that both
parties and their external backers acknowledge that neither side can prevail
militarily and that they stop pouring oil on the fire.
This might create the conditions to persuade them to conclude an immediate
ceasefire entailing a partial withdrawal of Haftar’s forces from the Tripoli
front lines and give the UN the chance to restart peace talks.”
BSS/AFP/RY/1715 hrs