WASHINGTON, April 15, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Saudi Arabia is looking to find a
way out of its devastating war in Yemen and the United States, the kingdom’s
stalwart ally, can play a critical role, the International Crisis Group said
Sunday.
The group, which researches ways to end conflicts, said the United States
should appoint a special envoy and suspend most arms shipments to the Saudis
with a promise to resume them once the kingdom ends its four-year offensive
against Huthi rebels who control much of their southern neighbor.
The Saudi-led coalition “needs to stop thinking about how to eke out some
notional victory and instead commit itself wholly to finding a political
exit, regardless of whether that means empowering the Huthis more than it is
comfortable with in the short term,” the group said in a study based on
interviews with current and former officials in the United States and
elsewhere.
“The US should lead the way by finding its own exit,” it said.
The report comes after Congress — alarmed by persistent civilian
casualties and widespread hunger in Yemen, as well as Saudi Arabia’s killing
of US-based writer Jamal Khashoggi — voted to cut off US support to the war
effort.
President Donald Trump, who has closely allied himself with Saudi Arabia,
has threatened to veto the bill but has not yet done so.
Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, a leading critic of the Yemen war, said
that even if Trump goes ahead with his veto, Congress can serve as a “bad
cop” to pressure Saudi Arabia to change course.
“This is not a question of whether or not the coalition is going to defeat
the Huthis; that question has been answered,” Murphy told a briefing on the
report.
“The Huthis are going to play a substantial and significant role in the
future governance of Yemen, so it is a matter of deciding how the Saudis will
live with that in a way that doesn’t threaten their long-term security
interests.”
Trump has sided with the Saudis in part because they say they are trying
to prevent a victory by rival Iran, which has supported the rebels who share
religious kinship with the Shiite clerical regime in Tehran.
But the International Crisis Group said the calculation was reversed, with
Iran in fact benefiting the longer the conflict persists, with the Saudis
sapped of resources and reputation at a minimal investment by Tehran.
“I think they see that they need to end it (but) they don’t know how to
end it,” Robert Malley, the group’s president, said of the Saudis.
The Saudis keep thinking “a little more military power and the Huthis will
crack and then we’ll be able to end the war and Iran will be on its
backfoot,” he said.
“But we have four years of evidence to disprove that.”