BANGKOK, March 24, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Polls opened Sunday for the first Thai
election since a 2014 coup, with a high turnout expected among a public who
received a cryptic last-minute warning from the Thai king to support “good”
leaders to prevent “chaos.”
All television stations repeated the rare statement by King Maha
Vajiralongkorn moments before polls opened across the politically turbulent
country.
Thailand is a constitutional monarchy and the palace is ostensibly above
the political fray.
But the institution retains unassailable powers and is insulated from
criticism by a harsh royal defamation law.
Sunday’s election pits a royalist junta and its allies against the
election-winning machine of billionaire ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra and an
unpredictable wave of millions of first-time voters.
The kingdom remains bitterly divided despite the ruling junta’s pledge to
rescue it from a decade-long treadmill of protests and coups.
Politicians across the spectrum fear a stalemate has been booked-in by new
election rules, written by the junta, which limit the chances of any single
party emerging with a comfortable parliamentary majority.
After years of democratic denial, enthusiastic voters turned out across the
country.
“People want to vote,” said businesswoman Apiyada Svarachorn at a Bangkok
polling station, adding the public remains “split into two sides”.
“We don’t have the right to decide for ourselves for five years now,” added
Wasa Anupant, a 28-year-old doctor.
“I’m very excited about this election.”
– Royal message –
The palace statement, unprecedented on an election eve in recent history,
added further intrigue to a vote that has repeatedly threatened to tip into
chaos before a single ballot was cast.
The statement reiterated comments by late king Bhumibol Adulyadej from 1969
calling for people to “support good people to govern the society and control
the bad people” to prevent them from “creating chaos”.
Vajiralongkorn urged the public to “remember and be aware” of the remarks
of his father, who died in 2016.
While there were no further clues as to who those “good people” might be,
the phrase — “khon dee” in Thai — is habitually attached to royalist,
establishment politicians.
The chief of the army — an institution which has carried out 12 coups in
under 90 years and trails its partnership with the monarchy — welcomed the
palace statement.
“It’s a good thing,” Apirat Kongsompong told reporters as he voted.
The king’s intervention is his second in less than two months.
Another royal command torpedoed the candidacy of his elder sister Princess
Ubolratana for prime minister of a party linked to Thaksin, a divisive ex-
premier toppled by a 2006 coup.
The party was later dissolved by a court.
Thaksin has lived in self-exile since 2008, but he looms large over
Sunday’s election.
His affiliated parties have won every Thai election since 2001, drawing on
huge loyalty from rural and urban poor.
On Friday Ubolratana was guest of honour at the glitzy Hong Kong wedding of
Thaksin’s daughter — with photos of the tycoon and the princess hugging and
smiling going viral.
— Numbers game —
The junta-party, which is proposing army chief turned premier Prayut Chan-
O-Cha for civilian prime minister after the polls, is under intense pressure
to avoid humiliation on Sunday in what is effectively a referendum on its
popularity.
Prayut toppled the civilian government of Thaksin’s younger sister Yingluck
in 2014, the twelfth coup in under a century.
The army and its allies in the Bangkok elite loathe the Shinawatras,
accusing the clan of toxifying Thai politics and society with money, nepotism
and graft.
The Shinawatras say they have simply recognised the economic and democratic
aspirations of the majority of Thais.
This time the ruling junta has written new election rules aimed at curbing
the number of seats big parties — specifically the Shinawatras’ main
election vehicle Pheu Thai — can win.
Pheu Thai is expected to again sweep up the north and northeastern
heartlands as it seeks to head an anti-junta coalition.
A 250-member junta-appointed senate and a new proportional system were
meant to have manoeuvered Prayut and the junta party — Phalang Pracharat —
into pole position.
With senate votes in hand, the party needs just 126 lower house seats to
secure a parliamentary majority.
It can cross that line comfortably in alliance with smaller parties.
Pheu Thai, however, needs 376 lower house seats to command an overall
majority — near impossible without complex tie-ups across pro-democracy
factions.
“A deadlock is very likely,” political scientist Napisa Waitoolkiat of
Naresuan University told AFP.
Seven million millennials are eligible to vote for the first time — many
enamoured by telegenic billionaire Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, a political
newcomer whose anti-junta position and strong social media messaging has won
fans for his Future Forward party.
Others with less clear cut loyalties could play a decisive role, including
the Democrats led by former premier Abhisit Vejjajiva and coalition partner
Bhumjaithai.