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VENEZUELA-POLITICS-MILITARY
Where is the Venezuelan crisis heading?
CARACAS, March 10, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – As the crisis in Venezuela rages on,
it remains uncertain whether President Nicolas Maduro will cling on or
opposition leader Juan Guaido will secure a transition of power.
But whatever the outcome, experts say it will be the military that tips the
balance.
Here are the paths analysts say the crisis could take.
– Pressure until collapse –
Guaido, who enjoys strong popular support, returned to Venezuela this week
after a trip across the Colombian border to help coordinate the entry of
humanitarian aid — a failed effort Maduro had blasted as a precursor to US
military intervention. The self-declared interim president — recognized by
over 50 countries, including the United States — avoided arrest upon his
return, despite the fact he had violated a travel ban.
Back on home soil, he vowed to ramp up protests and continue to make life
difficult for Maduro — namely by calling public sector strikes and asking
the European Union to tighten sanctions on the socialist government.
This kind of pressure could push military leaders to embrace Guaido and
“collapse the regime, paving the way for a transition with elections,”
Michael Shifter, of Washington-based think tank Inter-American Dialogue, told
AFP.
“So far there are few signs that this is happening, but it’s possible.”
But first, sanctions implemented by US President Donald Trump — including
a fuel embargo — would make life even harder for Venezuelans. That creates
the potential to taint Guaido’s image, said analyst Luis Vicente Leon, of
Venezuela’s Datanalisis.
In fact, some — including political scientist Luis Salamanca — believe
Maduro is betting on a strategy of “attrition” from Guaido.
– Political-military negotiation –
Maduro’s approval rating has dwindled to just 14 percent, according to
Datanalisis — but the loyalty of the military stands strong.
In a bid to rob Maduro of one remaining saving grace, Guaido has offered
military members amnesty if they defect — unless they are accused of crimes
against humanity.
Guaido says around 700 military members and police officials have broken
from Maduro in recent weeks, although no high-ranking personnel.
Getting commanding officials on side would require “specific guarantees”
for those implicated in corruption and human rights violations — not to
mention with economic interests.
“A transition like this would take longer, but it would increase the
likelihood of it not being violent,” according to Shifter.
Leon believes soldiers fear being decimated by a new government or failing
in a rebellion against Maduro, so any amnesty must be “negotiated face to
face.”
That could lead to a solution such as a set-up in which “the military
retains control of its forces as a guarantee of self-protection,” he
suggested.
An International Contact Group on Venezuela — made up of EU and Latin
American countries — has pushed for government-opposition talks. So far,
however, that has not moved forward.
– Coup or invasion –
A third scenario could see the military break from Maduro and organize
elections — or overthrow him in a traditional coup, according to Shifter.
“The scenario of military intervention, led by the United States, seems
less and less likely — but it can’t be ruled out, depending on how the
situation develops,” he said.
The first is the “magnitude and scale” of humanitarian crisis — and
second is the possibility that Maduro “could attack Guaido or (opposition-
controlled) parliament.”
But Leon warned intervention could unleash the same type of chaotic
violence from Maduro-loyal squads seen during the failed bid to bring in aid.
And regional conflict — featuring Colombian guerrillas operating in
borderlands — is not beyond the realm of possibility either, Shifter said.
BSS/AFP/MSY/0921 hrs