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Rising star palladium shines brightly
LONDON, March 3, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Palladium is blazing a record-breaking
trail on supply deficit fears, fuelled by strong demand from carmakers as
more and more consumers switch from high-polluting diesel to cleaner
vehicles, experts say.
The precious metal, which is used in the manufacture of catalytic
converters for petrol engines, scored a record pinnacle on Tuesday at $1,568
per ounce.
The commodity, which is mostly mined in Russia and South Africa, was also
buoyed by supply-side woes and solid demand from China — despite a recent
economic slowdown in the Asian powerhouse.
Palladium has rebounded sharply since striking a one-year low of $836 per
ounce in August, when it was rocked by a strong dollar.
“Demand for palladium in gasoline autocatalysts has seen strong growth over
the last few years, driven by Chinese growth and a declining diesel market
share following the Volkswagen scandal,” said Renaissance Capital commodities
analyst Steven Friedman.
Volkswagen’s pollution-cheating “dieselgate” scandal has also loomed large
since 2015 because it hurt demand for diesel-powered vehicles in the longer
term.
Germany’s biggest carmaker lurched into crisis after admitting that it had
fitted as many as 11 million of its diesel cars with software capable of
fooling official pollution tests.
– Golden palladium –
In December meanwhile, palladium eclipsed gold in dollar terms for the first
time in 16 years, and it has so far traded above gold for most of 2019.
It has benefited from weakening demand for high-polluting diesel cars that
face tighter regulation worldwide.
In stark contrast, sister metal platinum — a key component in converters
for diesel engines — languishes not too far from a 10-year low that was
struck last August.
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Diesel accounted for 36 percent of new car registrations worldwide in 2018,
according to data from automotive research consultancy Jato Dynamics.
That was sharply down from 44 percent in 2017, while the figure had stood
at a record high 55 percent in 2011.
As a result, automotive demand for palladium jumped to a record high of
8.66 million ounces in 2018, up three percent from 2017, according to the
world’s largest palladium refiner Johnson Matthey.
Both platinum and palladium remain supported, to varying degrees, by tight
global supply.
– Tight supplies –
“In 2018, the (palladium) market was in a structural deficit for the ninth
consecutive year in a row,” noted Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, which is the
world’s biggest palladium producer.
And thanks to runaway prices, Norilsk Nickel enjoyed a 44-percent boom in
net profit in 2018 to $3.1 billion (2.7 billion euros) from 2017.
The palladium deficit shrank slightly last year, with global demand
outstripping supply by 29,000 ounces in 2018, according to Johnson Matthey.
However, the situation appears set to worsen significantly this year thanks
to tighter emissions regulation.
Johnson Matthey forecasts the deficit in 2019 to hit 1.0 million ounces.
“The deficit in the palladium market looks set to widen dramatically in
2019, with stricter emissions legislation forecast to stimulate double-digit
rises in palladium demand from European and Chinese automakers,” warned
Johnson Matthey in its February market outlook.
The threat of strikes at South African mines — which together account for
some 40 percent of global production — could worsen the situation.
But some analysts argue that a correction in the volatile palladium market
is now overdue.
“The palladium market is probably one of the smallest commodity markets,”
Natixis analyst Bernard Dahdah told AFP.
“More likely one market player, someone is speculating by buying so much,”
he said, adding some commentators indicate Russia could be behind such a
move.
By Friday on the London Platinum and Palladium Market, the price of
palladium rose to $1,540.93 per ounce from $1,490.57 a week earlier.
Platinum meanwhile increased to $863.14 an ounce from $832.14.
BSS/AFP/SR/1715 HRS