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Trump and Kim face unanswered questions in Vietnam
HANOI, Feb 25, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – US President Donald Trump and North Korean
leader Kim Jong Un meet in Hanoi this week, faced with putting meat on the
bones of the vaguely worded declaration that emerged from their historic
first summit in Singapore.
That encounter — the first-ever between the leaders of the US and North
Korea — left many ambiguities on the key question of denuclearisation and
analysts say clearer answers need to emerge in the Vietnamese capital.
At the June meeting, Kim pledged to “work towards complete denuclearisation
of the Korean peninsula” but the lack of progress since then has drawn
criticism that the leaders were only after headlines and short-term gains.
Stephen Biegun, the US Special Representative for North Korea, acknowledged
last month that Pyongyang and Washington did not have a “shared agreement of
what denuclearisation entails”.
The United States has repeatedly demanded the North give up its nuclear
arsenal in a final, fully verifiable way.
Pyongyang sees denuclearisation more broadly, seeking an end to sanctions
and what it sees as US threats — usually including the American military
presence in the South, and sometimes in the wider region.
“The ambiguity and obscurity of the term denuclearisation only exacerbates
the scepticism about both the US and North Korean commitments to
denuclearisation,” wrote Shin Gi-wook, director of the Korea Program at
Stanford University.
Trump has employed both carrots and sticks to pursue North Korea’s
denuclearisation, praising the regime’s potential as a “great economic
powerhouse” but saying tough sanctions will remain until it takes a
“meaningful” step.
Pyongyang insists it has already done so, by not testing ballistic missiles
or nuclear weapons for more than a year, and blowing up the entrances to its
atomic test site.
But at the same time, North Korea says it has completed the development of
its arsenal and the facilities are no longer needed.
Diplomats in Pyongyang say authorities have emphasised Kim’s demand in his
New Year speech that the US must respond with “trustworthy measures and
corresponding practical actions”.
The two need to take “at least one step forward on denuclearisation” in
Hanoi, said Harry Kazianis of the Center for the National Interest, adding:
“Nothing would be worse than for either side to come out of the meeting as if
it was a waste of time.”
– ‘Worst scenario’ –
Officials are scrambling to prepare for the summit, with Biegun and his
North Korean counterpart Kim Hyok Chol expected to wrangle over the text of
the joint statement until early morning on Wednesday.
Some of Washington’s recent rhetoric has stressed the safety of US citizens
rather than the North abandoning its arsenal.
That has raised questions whether Trump might be willing to accept a
nuclear-armed North if it gives up the intercontinental ballistic missiles
with which it can target the US.
That would leave US allies South Korea and Japan both within range of the
North’s arsenal, and was described as “the worst scenario” in an editorial by
the Korea Herald.
Trump said last week he had “no pressing time schedule” to convince
Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear arsenal as long as it maintained its testing
freeze.
The US president proclaimed that the North Korean nuclear threat was over
after the Singapore summit, and Scott Seaman of the Eurasia Group said he had
one eye on a Nobel Prize.
“Trump will likely focus more on reinforcing a narrative that he has
secured peace than on pushing Kim to denuclearise,” he wrote.
– ‘Symbolic step’ –
The best-case scenario, said Kim Yong-hyun of Dongguk University, would be
if Trump and Kim can agree a roadmap for the denuclearisation process.
North Korea could agree to “visible, symbolic measures” such as the
shuttering of the Yongbyon nuclear complex or dismantling ICBMs.
Washington could promise security guarantees in the form of a declaration
of an end to the 1950-53 Korean War — which ended with an armistice instead
of a full peace treaty — or opening liaison offices.
That would signal the first stage of normalising US-North Korean relations,
said Go Myong-hyun of the Asan Institute of Policy Studies, and would be an
ideal “politically symbolic step” rather than prematurely agreeing to
sanctions relief.
“The previous expectation that this is going to be a milestone… is
probably misplaced,” he told AFP.
But Trump is unpredictable, and could look to deflect attention from his
domestic woes.
His former lawyer Michael Cohen is due to testify to Congress on February
28, and former CIA analyst Soo Kim told AFP: “Trump could impulsively agree
to give away significant concessions to Kim in Vietnam expressly for his own
interests.”
BSS/AFP/GMR/0913 hrs