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Fear and hoping: expectations surge ahead of new US-Taliban talks
KABUL, Feb 24, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – The US and the Taliban are to meet in
Qatar for fresh talks Monday seeking an end to 17 years of grinding conflict
in Afghanistan, with the stakes ratcheting higher as the spring fighting
season approaches.
Marathon talks held in Doha last month have stoked hopes of a breakthrough
after the two sides walked away with a “draft framework” that included a
Taliban commitment to prevent Afghanistan from once again becoming a safe
haven for international terror groups.
It was the most substantial engagement by Washington with the militants
since US forces ousted them from power in 2001.
But there is still no accord on a timetable for a US withdrawal or a
ceasefire — both major issues on which previous efforts have foundered.
This time Washington’s special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, who has spearheaded
the months-long effort, is expected to face an expanded Taliban negotiating
team headed by Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai, the Taliban’s former deputy
minister of foreign affairs.
Neither side has stated how long they expect the meetings to last or the
details of what will be discussed.
Analysts say this round will likely see the Taliban push for the removal
of its leaders from a UN travel blacklist, matched with pressure from the US
for the militants to open a dialogue with the Afghan government.
“Both sides are going into this process with open minds and a sense of
urgency as the weather gets warmer and fighting season draws closer,” Graeme
Smith, a consultant based with International Crisis Group, told AFP.
The Taliban have steadfastly refused to negotiate with Kabul, whom they
dismiss as “puppets”. They have also stated that, without a withdrawal
timetable, further progress is “impossible”.
US President Donald Trump’s apparent eagerness to end America’s longest
war, the Afghan government’s fear of being sidelined, and the coming of
spring all weigh on the process.
“Eyes are on the Taliban to see if they are capable of compromising,” said
analyst Michael Semple.
MORE/FI/ 1456 hrs
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“Can they come up with a sufficient compromise to agree to a formula for
an intra-Afghan dialogue that absolutely involves the current Afghan
government?”
Khalilzad, he added, “has stirred up the peace process in a way that
nobody over the previous two decades had”.
– Pakistan’s influence waning? –
The gathering momentum has spurred fresh peace demonstrations and cautious
hope in Afghanistan.
But there is also growing unease, with fears the government is being
pushed aside and that progress which many Afghans have paid for with their
lives could yet be undone if the US rushes for the exits.
According to fresh UN figures released Sunday, more civilians were killed
in the Afghan war in 2018 than during any other year on record — with 3,804
people killed and another 7,189 wounded.
Women’s groups and civil society organisations have warned that a speedy
withdrawal or lenient deal with the Taliban could pave the way for a return
of their repressive rule, or an even bloodier civil war.
Many watched in astonishment earlier this month as Taliban militants
shared meals and prayers with Afghan political leaders, including
presidential contender Mohammad Atta Noor and former president Hamid Karzai,
in Moscow.
But not one representative from the current administration of President
Ashraf Ghani was present at the informal talks, deepening the sense of
anxiety.
Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are also
playing a role in negotiations, as Russia and China watch closely, and many
observers fear regional disputes could yet derail the process.
Pakistan, which has long wielded influence over the militants and been
seen as key to any peace push, has already suggested that soaring tensions
with its nuclear arch-rival India could disrupt the talks.
But Taliban expert Rahimullah Yusufzai said this time around Pakistan’s
stance may be more chest-thumping bravado than an actual threat.
He said that with the US and the Taliban talking to each other directly,
“I think Pakistan’s role will not be that important now.”
– ‘Challenging’ climate –
The talks have been buttressed by heavy snowfall across Afghanistan,
sharply reducing fighting and providing much-needed space for negotiations.
But Yusufzai warned that another bloody fighting season will likely kick
off once the snow melts, as the Taliban seeks to maintain its momentum on the
battlefield to maximise pressure at the negotiating table.
“I think they have to keep up the momentum until a ceasefire,” he said.
Others warned that more bloodshed might undercut the fragile gains the
talks have achieved so far.
“It will be more challenging to pursue peace in the months that come if
the Taliban… resort to a large-scale spring offensive,” said Semple.
BS/AFP/FI/ 1458 hrs