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Campaign for second Brexit vote goes down to the wire
LONDON, Feb 7, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Only a few months ago, crowds of
protesters marched through London to demand a second Brexit referendum. But
just weeks before the departure date, the momentum has stalled.
Lacking the support of main opposition Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, the
campaign has flagged in recent weeks.
A cross-party group of second referendum backers last week declined to put
forward a plan for a vote by MPs in the House of Commons, accepting that it
would never pass without Corbyn’s support.
“We had a little bit of a bad moment, I’ll be honest,” said Paul Butters
of the Best for Britain group, which campaigns to keep the country in the
European Union.
He said that for them to succeed, “Corbyn has to move.”
One of the strongest opponents of Brexit, EU leader Donald Tusk,
acknowledged the difficulties at a Brussels press conference on Wednesday.
Addressing those who want Britain to stay in the EU, he said: “I have
always been with you, with all my heart.
“But the facts are unmistakable. At the moment, the pro-Brexit stance of
the UK prime minister, and the leader of the opposition, rules out this
question.”
However, campaigners insist that theirs has only been a temporary setback
and are still biding their time, even as the clock ticks down to Brexit day,
March 29.
They argue that the closer Britain gets to leaving the EU without a deal,
the more likely they will be to get the Commons majority needed to arrange a
referendum.
“There’s not a majority in parliament at the moment for a People’s Vote
but I don’t expect there would be until all options have been exhausted,”
said Adrian McMenamin, deputy communications director of the People’s Vote
campaign.
– Waiting for Labour –
Talk of a second referendum began almost as soon as the first one
delivered its shock result in June 2016, but the formal campaign only
launched last year. Backed by some generous donors, including US billionaire
George Soros, a number of anti-Brexit groups moved into shared offices near
parliament.
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They have successfully turned a once marginal idea into something widely
debated, which Prime Minister Theresa May frequently addresses — if only to
argue that it has little support.
As well as the smaller pro-EU opposition parties in the Commons, more than
100 of the 256 opposition Labour MPs are now on board.
“Support in the parliamentary Labour party is very strong,” one MP told
AFP on condition of anonymity, saying the number who supported the campaign
in private was much higher.
However, he admitted there had been some internal discussion about
“tactics”, adding: “It’s gone quiet because now is not the right time.”
Labour party policy says it should support all options on Brexit,
including campaigning for a public vote.
But veteran socialist Corbyn, a lifelong eurosceptic, is personally
reluctant to call a new referendum, and an estimated 30-35 Labour MPs are
also strongly opposed.
– ‘Remain project’ –
Even if Corbyn changes his mind, more MPs from May’s Conservative party
would also need to support a referendum as it would require passing
legislation in parliament.
Fewer than a dozen currently back the idea in public, and those that do
face a torrent of abuse on social media.
Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde, an expert on
polling, said public backing for a new vote varies widely depending on the
question asked.
In general, around two-thirds of those who want to stay in the EU support
it, compared to between one-eighth and one-quarter of those who want to
leave.
“The problem that the People’s Vote has is that it’s a ‘Remain’ project,”
he told AFP, noting that almost everybody who campaigns for it wants to
reverse Brexit.
“I don’t think there is a single ‘Leave’ Tory MP who has come on board.”
May is currently trying to change her Brexit deal in the hope that MPs
will come to support it.
But there is a real risk parliament will never agree — leaving Britain
heading for a damaging “no deal” exit.
One pro-European Conservative MP told AFP he believed up to 40 or 50 of
his colleagues could back a referendum if it was a choice between that or no
deal.
“But the circumstances would have to be as stark as that,” he admitted.
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