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Dropping weapons treaty would let US update its nuclear arsenal
WASHINGTON, Feb 3, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – The US scrapping of the Intermediate-
Range Nuclear Forces (INF) treaty with Russia could launch a new arms race,
but will also allow the United States to update its nuclear arsenal, a
publicly stated goal for the past year.
President Donald Trump announced Friday the US was suspending its
obligations under the INF treaty as of Saturday and starting a process to
withdraw in six months.
NATO has said that US allies “fully support” its withdrawal from the pact,
and agreed that Russia’s 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile systems
violates the treaty.
A day later, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a tit-for-tat
withdrawal from the pact to develop “new types of weapons,” calling
Washington’s decision “unilateral and totally unprovoked.”
The United States has complained about the alleged Russian violations for
years.
But now it’s also speaking openly about its chance to upgrade its arms
stock.
When the United States unveiled its new nuclear policy in February 2018,
it warned that it planned to buy two new weapons: a new type of low-power
nuclear missile to be launched from a submarine, and a new type of nuclear
cruise missile that would violate the INF agreement.
This new missile — which would only come into service within a decade —
would only be a violation of the treaty if it were deployed, the Pentagon
says.
It has always stressed that a research and development program was not
prohibited by the 1987 treaty with Moscow.
So starting Saturday “we are no longer bound by the constraints of the
Treaty,” Johnny Michael, a Pentagon spokesman, told AFP Friday.
The 2019 US military budget provides funds for developing this new
intermediate-range land-based missile and “we are still in the research
phase,” the spokesman said.
In fact, the Pentagon was already preparing its response to Russian
missile 9M729, with a top range of 480 kilometers, Moscow insists.
But Washington, backed by NATO allies, says that Russian missile has
already been tested on much greater distances.
– Arms race –
Johns Hopkins University’s Jeffrey Pryce argues that the INF treaty favors
the United States because, while it prohibits all surface-to-air missiles
with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers, conventional or intermediate,
anything fired from a submarine or dropped by a bomber, simply is not
covered.
“Thus, the INF Treaty deprives Russia of a significant military
capability, for which its size and location are strategic advantages,” the
former Pentagon official said on Twitter.
“The US, by contrast, has the world’s most powerful navy and air force.
And the INF Treaty does not restrict sea-launched or air-launched missiles.”
According to figures from the anti-nuclear group Union of Concerned
Scientists, the US nuclear arsenal holds 4,600 nuclear weapons, of which
1,740 are deployed and ready to be used at any time, and 2,922 stored.
Ten US Navy submarines armed with nuclear missiles are constantly
patrolling the seas, the group said.
Russia has a similar number of nuclear warheads, but its nuclear
submarines are in bad shape, as several accidents have shown in recent years.
China, keen to assert military supremacy in Asia, also has intermediate-
range missiles. According to experts, 95 percent of Chinese missiles would
violate the INF treaty if Beijing was a signatory.
Michael Krepon, of the Stimson Center, believes that “we’re headed toward
a new nuclear arms race.
“Any time your national defense budget is ten times bigger than Russia’s
and five times bigger than China’s, you can afford an arms race. But arms
races usually don’t end well: even if you stay ahead of the competition, your
security is diminished.”
BSS/AFP/FI/ 1125 hrs