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From sizzle to fizzle: Hong Kong’s red-hot property market cools
HONG KONG, Jan 16, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – For young Hong Kongers like Wilson
Leung getting a foothold on the city’s property ladder has long been a near
impossible task but with the notoriously overpriced housing market facing a
downturn, they now have a chance of realising their dream.
The crammed financial hub regularly tops the list of cities with the least
affordable housing in the world, with even cheap apartments out of the reach
of most regular workers.
However, after a decade of near continual growth Hong Kong is about to
join a global downturn that is buffeting markets including London, Vancouver,
Sydney and Shanghai.
And the good news for first-time buyers like Leung, who works in sales and
lives with his parents, most analysts believe the trend will continue into
2019 as the China-US trade dispute rumbles on and the Chinese economy
stutters.
“Now the price range is OK for me,” Leung, 30, tells AFP, a sentiment not
often heard in a city where many young people save for years under their
parents’ roofs in cramped flats well into their thirties.
“I am not waiting for the market to drop even more, but waiting for a
wider selection to show up. Once I find an ideal place, I’ll spring into
action.”
Leung, who plans to marry later this year, might do well to wait some more
on the property hunt. Many analysts are predicting further dips, fuelled by
the fallout of the US-China trade war, the slowing mainland economy, a
weakening yuan and the prospect of further interest rate rises.
The Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) last month said property
prices declined for two consecutive months while sales volumes have been down
for four months straight, the longest losing streak since 2008 at the height
of the global financial crisis.
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– Micro-flats –
Demand from buyers in mainland China — a cash-rich demographic that has
been a key driver of the bubble, much to the frustration of Hong Kongers —
has also been negative for the past four months.
“Against this backdrop, expectations for prices and sales volumes remain
firmly rooted in negative territory over the next three months and 12
months,” RICS wrote.
Iris Pang, ING’s Greater China economist, said residential prices have
fallen by as much as 15 percent in some areas.
She said jitters over the trade war were having the most significant
effect given the “potential impact on the Hong Kong economy, including job
security, wage growth and asset price trend in general”.
“This makes the market sentiment negative currently, and will continue to
be so unless we see significant progress from the trade truce,” she told AFP,
predicting a further 10-15 percent drop in prices in 2019.
Until recently, the financial hub’s property has provided handsome returns
for the wealthy — prices have doubled since 2008.
The city became notorious for selling parking space-sized “micro-flats”
for around HK$2.85 million ($360,000).
The only time prices dipped was during a brief period in 2015-16 when
moves to discourage mainland buyers snapping up multiple properties coincided
with a brief stock market plunge.
But it didn’t last long.
RICS senior economist Sean Ellison said the current drop looks more long
term as the trade war bites.
“This time feels different because there’s multiple catalysts,” he told
AFP.
– Bubble concerns –
So is the world’s least affordable property market headed for a crash?
UBS ranked Hong Kong at the top of its league table for being the most
overpriced and most at risk of a bubble.
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The September report said a “skilled worker” needed 22 years of income to
afford a 60 square metre (645 square feet) flat, up from 12 years a decade
ago, with salaries staying largely the same since 2008.
But many analysts are wary of predicting a burst bubble because of Hong
Kong’s unique situation — the densely populated city of seven million has a
massive housing shortage, which means huge demand.
“You would need a pretty strong exogenous shock to the market to really
send it lower,” said Ellison, who predicts a less dramatic five percent fall
in prices over the next year.
Historical examples he gives that have sent the market plunging are the
1997 Asian financial crash and the 2003 SARS outbreak.
One potential alarm bell is if Washington and Beijing fail to make a
breakthrough in their trade talks by their March deadline — triggering a
massive increase in tariffs from the Trump administration.
“The knock-on effects there could be significant,” he warned.
Many sellers are now adopting a wait and see approach.
“I’m still quite uncertain and worried,” said Bonnie Chan, who has her 450
sqft flat on the market for HK$8.5 million ($1 million) — down from its
highest valuation of HK$9 million.
“I’ve listed my flat for sale, but I still haven’t made up my mind to sell
it.”
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