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Powerful trio cast a shadow over Congo poll
KINSHASA, Dec 25, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – Elections in Democratic Republic of
Congo will ostensibly bring the curtain down on the era of President Joseph
Kabila, in charge of the vast resource-rich nation for nearly 18 turbulent
years.
If elections successfully take place on Sunday, it would mark the first
peaceful transition of power in the DRC’s post-colonial history.
But many analysts strongly doubt that Kabila will quit politics.
Instead, they predict he will simply wield influence behind the scenes —
a tactic likely to be emulated by two rivals, ex-rebel Jean-Pierre Bemba and
Moise Katumbi, exiled former governor of Katanga province.
– Kabila comeback? –
Kabila took power at the age of 29 after his president father, Laurent-
Desire, was assassinated in 2001 by a bodyguard.
If Sunday’s thrice-postponed vote goes according to plan, Kabila will step
down, taking up the senator-for-life position offered to former presidents.
Kabila has been vague about his future but, aged only 47, seems to have no
plans to shuffle off into retirement.
“In life, as in politics, I do not rule anything out,” he told foreign
media ahead of the polls.
He said his political future might be clearer in 2023 — the year the
country is set to hold its next presidential polls.
Critics say Kabila plans to have the seat kept warm for him by his hand-
picked successor, hardline former interior minister Emmanuel Ramazani
Shadary, one of the front-runners wins the election.
After nearly 18 years in power, Kabila has also built up a web of
supporters in the military and security apparatus, as well as a loyal
political vehicle, the Common Front for Congo (FCC), which earlier this year
declared him to be its “moral authority.”
Kabila also reputedly has major stakes in the economy, which would also
extend his potential influence. A Bloomberg investigation two years ago found
the Kabila family had built up a huge business network with interests across
the DRC.
– Bemba: Former warlord –
Former militia leader Jean-Pierre Bemba, 56, has been a fixture in DRC’s
political landscape, and a rival to the Kabila clan, for years.
He was once an assistant to Mobutu Sese Seko, but left the country after
Kabila’s father overthrew the dictator in 1997.
In 1998 he formed his Movement for the Liberation of the Congo (MLC)
militia in armed opposition to Kabila senior.
He became vice president in an interim government in 2003, but in 2006 was
defeated by Kabila junior in an election bid. He was elected to the Senate
the following year.
In 2008, Bemba was arrested in Brussels on charges of war crimes in the
International Criminal Court over atrocities committed by his militia in the
neighbouring Central African Republic.
In 2016, the ICC found him guilty of war crimes and crimes against
humanity but this year overturned the decision on appeal.
But another ICC charge of witness bribery meant he was legally banned from
an election bid.
Bemba has a major power base, especially in the northwestern DRC, and tens
of thousands of cheering supporters turned out for his return in August.
Like Katumbi, he has backed Martin Fulyani, a little-known legislator and
former oil executive, as a rival candidate to the pro-Kabila Shadary.
– Katumbi: exile-in-waiting? –
Millionaire businessman Moise Katumbi has also been barred from
contesting Sunday’s election.
But the 53-year-old can still count on wielding influence on the DRC’s
future through his backing for Fulyani.
His stronghold is the mineral-rich southeastern province of Katanga where
he was once governor.
After falling out with Kabila, Katumbi has been living in self-imposed
exile in Belgium, the former colonial power, since May 2016. He was handed a
three-year sentence for property fraud — a charge that he denies.
In January, he declared he would run in the presidential election but was
then accused of hiring mercenaries and charged with offences against state
security.
In August, he was blocked from entering the DRC as he tried to meet a
deadline for filing his election bid.
In October, the case was sent to the constitutional court — a procedure
likely to take months.
BSS/AFP/RY/12:12 hrs