ZCZC
BFF-06
MEXICO-VOTE
Mexico heads for new era under leftist president AMLO
MEXICO CITY, Nov 30, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador will be
sworn in as Mexico’s next president Saturday, as a country fed up with
corruption, crime and poverty seeks a new direction under the divisive anti-
establishment leftist.
The man widely known as “AMLO” won Mexico’s July 1 elections in a
landslide, and his coalition — led by the party he founded four years ago,
Morena — took strong majorities in both houses of Congress.
It was the biggest win for any president, and the first for a leftist,
since Mexico transitioned to multi-party democracy in 2000.
As the sharp-tongued, silver-haired leader prepares to slip on the
presidential sash for a six-year term, the question is: what will he do with
that mandate?
Lopez Obrador, 65, has been short on specifics of how he plans to deliver
the “transformation” he promises.
He inherits a sticky set of problems from his unpopular predecessor,
Enrique Pena Nieto.
They include endemic corruption, gruesome violence fueled by Mexico’s war
on drug cartels, and the caravan of 6,000 Central American migrants camped at
the US-Mexican border — not to mention the minefield that diplomacy with
Mexico’s giant northern neighbor has become under President Donald Trump.
Facing crises on multiple fronts, Lopez Obrador is promising a presidency
like no other in Mexican history.
He has forsworn the presidential residence, the presidential jet, more than
half the presidential salary and the presidential security detail, promising
to lead his anti-corruption, pro-austerity charge by example.
But critics fear his government will be one of radicalism and authoritarian
tendencies. The business world is particularly nervous: the Mexican peso and
stocks have plunged since the election.
However, the former Mexico City mayor has not lost his popular support. His
approval rating is 66 percent, according to a poll published Monday by
newspaper El Financiero.
“I think he still has a fairly romantic honeymoon ahead of him — but there
are signs his support could deteriorate very quickly,” said Mexico specialist
Duncan Wood of the Wilson Center in Washington.
– Market jitters –
The biggest warning sign: jitters over the future of Latin America’s
second-largest economy.
Lopez Obrador has tried to sooth the markets, promising fiscally
conservative policies.
But the five-month transition period has been bumpy.
Lopez Obrador incensed business leaders when he announced he would cancel
construction of a new $13-billion airport for Mexico City, after holding a
referendum on the issue that was plagued by irregularities.
Moves by lawmakers in his coalition to slash banking fees and bring pension
funds under state control have also stoked fears.
Mexican stocks have lost more than 12 percent since his election. On
Monday, they hit their lowest level since March 2014.
And on Wednesday, the central bank lowered its economic growth forecast for
2019, citing uncertainty over Lopez Obrador’s policies.
– Trump troubles? –
Then there is the tricky matter of Trump.
The American president bullied the Pena Nieto administration with his vows
to make Mexico pay for a wall on the border and brinksmanship in negotiating
an updated trade deal between the US, Mexico and Canada — which will
ultimately be signed the day before Lopez Obrador takes office.
So far, Lopez Obrador and Trump have gotten off to a warm start. Trump said
they had a “great talk” after the election, and reportedly even calls his new
counterpart “Juan Trump” — a nod to their shared populism and anti-
establishment victories.
But Trump is pressuring Lopez Obrador on immigration, pushing a deal to
keep asylum-seeking migrants in Mexico while their claims are processed in
the United States.
The day after the inauguration, Lopez Obrador’s foreign minister, Marcelo
Ebrard, is due to meet with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in Washington for
talks on the issue.
“The policies coming out of Washington are putting Lopez Obrador in a very
difficult situation,” said Pamela Starr of the University of Southern
California.
“That said, while Trump has bashed the migrant caravan… he has never
bashed Lopez Obrador. That gives me pause to think that potentially the two
of them might be able to work something out.”
– Vague plans –
Political analysts have been critical of Lopez Obrador’s vague plans.
Despite promising sweeping change, he has offered few new policy ideas on
his key issues: fighting corruption, crime and poverty.
For his highly energized voter base, that does not seem to matter — for
now.
“They’re buying his promises,” Mexican political analyst Jose Antonio
Crespo told AFP.
“He has generated very high expectations. It will take people a while to
figure out who their new president really is.”
BSS/AFP/MRI/0825 hrs