RIYADH, Nov 22, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – US President Donald Trump has doubled
down on his partnership with Saudi Arabia, calling it an indispensable ally
after a journalist’s grisly murder, but critics say his position ignores
Washington’s enormous leverage over Riyadh.
Trump on Tuesday gave Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a pass on
Jamal Khashoggi’s murder, glossing over the Central Intelligence Agency’s
reported conclusion that the kingdom’s de facto ruler had authorised the
killing.
“Maybe he did and maybe he didn’t!” Trump said, implying Prince Mohammed’s
culpability in Khashoggi’s killing in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul on
October 2 hardly matters.
What does, he asserted, was the Gulf kingdom’s role as a bulwark against
rival Iran, its multi-billion dollar investments in the US — including
several arms deals — and its perceived stranglehold on global oil prices.
Trump was widely pilloried for what critics called his mercantile
priorities that made him appear more like a lobbyist for the oil-rich
kingdom, raising the prospect of strong congressional action against Saudi
Arabia.
But Trump’s firm backing of the kingdom in the face of global outrage
reinforced what officials in Riyadh often say: the US-Saudi relationship is
too big to fail.
“Structural ties — intelligence, counterterrorism cooperation and energy
— really are too big not only to fail but to place at risk,” said Hussein
Ibish, a scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
“But transactional aspects of the relationship — weapons sales,
investments that are valued by Trump — shouldn’t become an excuse to make a
Faustian pact and turn a blind eye to justice.”
– ‘Substantial leverage’ –
Trump’s stance ignores what the Washington-based Center for International
Policy says is America’s “substantial leverage over Saudi behaviour”. “The
Saudis need US weapons and equipment more than we need to sell them,” former
US Middle East negotiator Aaron David Miller wrote for CNN’s website.
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“It would be very difficult and expensive for the Saudis to make good on
their periodic threats to ‘buy foreign’ if they can’t get what they want from
the United States.”
Experts say Riyadh is more susceptible to American pressure than Trump
asserts, as its economy is intertwined with that of the US.
Seeking to diversify its oil-reliant economy, the kingdom’s vast Public
Investment Fund has multi-billion dollar stakes in a host of US firms — from
global ridesharing giant Uber to virtual reality start-up Magic Leap.
Largely lacking business expertise outside of its oil and petrochemical
industries, Riyadh has poured millions of dollars into consultancy firms such
as McKinsey and the Boston Consulting Group.
US fact-checking website PolitiFact disputes Trump’s claim that Saudi
Arabia has agreed to invest $450 billion — including $110 billion worth of
arms deals — in the United States.
Many of the investments exist only on paper, it says.
And US arms sales to Saudi Arabia have accounted for fewer than 20,000
American jobs a year, a far cry from the hundreds of thousands of jobs
claimed by Trump, according to the Center for International Policy.
– ‘We can buy the world’ –
Prince Mohammed is likely to weather the crisis over the killing of
Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist critical of the de-facto ruler, and
could rule Saudi Arabia for the next half century.
The kingdom appears emboldened by Trump’s support.
“To the world: Saudi Arabia First,” screamed a headline in the pro-
government Okaz newspaper on Wednesday, echoing Trump’s “America First”
mantra.
The full-page article heaped praise on Trump for not “acting foolishly”
against the kingdom.
Dozens of what appeared to be Saudi bot accounts lionised Trump with
messages of gratitude peppered with heart emojis.
“There’s a feeling that we can buy anything, that we can buy the world,” a
Saudi analyst in Riyadh told AFP following Trump’s statement.
Shrugging off the global pressure, Prince Mohammed is expected to attend
the Group of 20 summit later this month, raising the electrifying prospect of
face-to-face encounters with world leaders who have strongly condemned the
murder.
“I think in some ways this typifies the crown prince’s approach, which
is… to say ‘no, we’re going to double down’,” said Jon Alterman, from the
Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
“If you’re going to deal with Saudi Arabia, you will be dealing with the
crown prince.”
But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who claims the orders for the
Khashoggi’s killing came from “the highest levels” of the Saudi government,
appears unlikely to follow Trump’s lead.
Same for the CIA.
In leaking its assessment that Prince Mohammed authorised the murder, the
CIA was sending the message that it was willing to “take on Trump”, said
James Dorsey, a fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International
Studies.
The move also suggested “the agency does not believe Prince Mohammed’s
survival as king-in-waiting is crucial to US national security or the
stability of the kingdom,” Dorsey added.