ZCZC
BCN-15
IMF-EU-ITALY-ECONOMY-DEBT
IMF warns Italy vulnerable amid rising interest rates
COPENHAGEN, Nov 9, 2018 (BSS/AFP) – The International Monetary Fund (IMF)
said Thursday countries with “weaker macroeconomic fundamentals” are at
greater risk from rising global interest rates that put currencies under
pressure, including Italy and Turkey.
Noting the “four-year high” in Italian sovereign bond yields, the IMF said
“there is appreciable uncertainty, and contagion from future stress could be
notable, especially for economies with weaker macroeconomic fundamentals and
limited policy buffers.”
The IMF made its remarks in its autumn forecast for Europe.
Italy is under massive pressure since the European Commission on October
23 rejected its 2019 budget in a historic move, giving the ruling populist
coalition in Rome until November 13 to present changes.
Failing that, Brussels could put Italy into something called the “excess
deficit procedure”, a complicated process that could eventually lead to a
fine of 0.2 percent of the country’s GDP.
The Italian government — a coalition of the far-right League and the
anti-establishment Five Star Movement — plans to run a public deficit of 2.4
percent of GDP, three times the target of its centre-left predecessor.
The coalition’s 2019 budget is based on an estimate of annual growth of
1.5 percent — a figure considered optimistic by the IMF, which has forecast
only one percent, and the Commission, which expects 1.2 percent.
Italian leaders insist the low growth rate is all the more reason to
kickstart the economy through a spending spree, but Brussels fears the rising
deficit could further feed Italy’s exploding debt.
Italy already owes 2.3 trillion euros ($2.6 trillion), a sum equivalent to
131 percent of its GDP. Even if Brussels fails to punish Rome, many assume
the markets will.
Italy, as well as Turkey the IMF noted, “should prioritise measures that
reduce fiscal deficits toward their medium-term targets and lower debt.”
BSS/AFP/HR/0938