ZCZC
BFF-04
TURKEY-SAUDI-CRIME-DIPLOMACY
Khashoggi crisis may tip Middle East power balance towards Turkey
ISTANBUL, Nov 3, 2018 (AFP) – The murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi
could alter the power dynamic in the Middle East by strengthening Turkey’s
influence at Saudi Arabia’s expense as they compete for leadership of the
Islamic world, analysts say.
This certainly appears to be the goal of Turkish President Recep Tayyip
Erdogan, the main regional supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood, which Saudi
Arabia and its allies Egypt and the United Arab Emirates consider a terrorist
group.
The killing inside the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul by a team sent from
Riyadh on October 2 has already severely tarnished Saudi Arabia’s global
reputation.
But it is the potential involvement of Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman,
the oil-rich Gulf nation’s de facto leader known by his initials MBS, that
could permanently damage Riyadh’s influence in the region.
After initially insisting Khashoggi left the consulate unharmed, then
saying he died in a brawl, the Saudi regime finally stated he was killed by a
“rogue operation” and arrested 18 suspects, some with links to the crown
prince.
Analysts say Erdogan could use the ensuing crisis to weaken the 33-year-
old prince, even potentially leading to the royal family removing him from
power — though that seems unlikely.
“The killing of Khashoggi has proven to be a golden opportunity for
President Erdogan to pressure Saudi Arabia and work towards presenting Turkey
as the new leader of the Muslim world,” said Lina Khatib, director of Middle
East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.
“The Khashoggi crisis is a big geo-political gamble for Turkey and so far
it looks like it is playing the game masterfully. But Turkey alone will not
be able to push for the removal of MBS. The ball lies in the American court,”
she added.
– ‘Opportunity’ for Erdogan –
For Erdogan, promoting the Muslim Brotherhood — which Saudi Arabia has
sought to marginalise in the Arab world and which was ousted from power and
brutally repressed in Egypt in 2013 by current President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi
— is at the heart of this power struggle.
The Turkish leader could also try to extract concessions from Riyadh for
its ally Qatar, facing a Saudi blockade backed by the United Arab Emirates,
Bahrain, and Egypt since 2017.
MORE/SSS/0915 hrs
ZCZC
BFF-05
TURKEY-SAUDI-CRIME-DIPLOMACY-2-LAST
“I think that Erdogan sees this as an opportunity to push back against a
triple entente in the Middle East that opposes his policies. That triple
entente is composed of MBS, MBZ’s (Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al-
Nahyan) UAE and Sisi’s Egypt,” said Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkey
Research Program at the Washington Institute.
“These three countries, all Arabs, oppose Erdogan’s policies of supporting
the Muslim Brotherhood. Now Erdogan sees a golden opportunity because MBS is
vulnerable.”
But Sinan Ulgen, president of the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy,
said “it remains to be seen whether Ankara can continue to leverage this
conjuncture and turn it into a permanent advantage raising Turkey’s regional
influence to the detriment of Saudi Arabia”.
Nicholas Heras, an analyst at the Center for a New American Security, said
the Khashoggi case was the “latest chapter in Turkey and Saudi Arabia’s
ongoing contest over which country is better” to lead the Muslim world.
– ‘Cut MBS down to size’ –
“Erdogan clearly seems to believe that he can use the Khashoggi crisis as
a way to cut Prince Mohammad bin Salman, and by extension, Saudi Arabia, down
to size,” Heras added.
By not directly pointing the blame at the crown prince over Khashoggi,
Erdogan is seeking to keep him under pressure, according to Karim Bitar of
the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs
think-tank.
“Erdogan knows that he still has ammunition that could weaken MBS in the
international arena so basically he is rolling the dice these days trying to
figure out how to maximise his profit after this huge Saudi blunder,” he told
AFP.
While the Muslim Brotherhood is important to Turkey, the West —
especially the United States — is wary of the group and wants to focus any
pressure on the crown prince towards ending the Yemen war and lifting the
blockade on Qatar, the experts said.
“I expect the blockade on Doha will likely come to an end in the near
future and the Saudis find a way to support the UN’s efforts in Yemen,” said
Steven Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Bitar noted that the US administration relies on Prince Mohammed’s support
for any possible peace plan for the Israel-Palestinian conflict as well as
containing Iran, long a Saudi foe.
Washington could also push the crown prince towards “a rapprochement with
Israel and to maintain a hawkish line towards Iran”, Bitar added.
BSS/AFP/SSS/0916 hrs