SEOUL, March 25, 2021 (BSS/AFP) – North Korea fired two suspected ballistic
missiles into the sea Thursday, in what would be its first substantive
provocation to the new US administration of Joe Biden.
The nuclear-armed North has a long history of using weapons tests as
provocations, in a carefully calibrated process to forward its objectives.
Donald Trump’s first year in office was marked by a series of escalating
launches, accompanied by a war of words between him and North Korean leader
Kim Jong Un.
Pyongyang had been biding its time since the new administration took
office, not even officially acknowledging its existence until last week.
But Seoul’s joint chiefs of staff said the North launched two short-range
missiles into the Sea of Japan, known as the East Sea in Korea, from South
Hamgyong province.
They travelled 450 kilometres and reached a maximum altitude of 60
kilometres, the JCS added, without specifying their type more precisely.
But Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga was unequivocal, telling
reporters: “North Korea launched two ballistic missiles.”
It had been a year since the last such incident, he added, saying: “This
threatens the peace and security of our country and the region. It is also a
violation of the UN resolution.”
Tokyo said they came down outside the waters of Japan’s exclusive economic
zone.
North Korea is banned from developing any ballistic missiles under UN
Security Council resolutions, and is under multiple international sanctions
over its weapons programmes.
But it has made rapid progress in its capabilities under Kim, testing
missiles capable of reaching the entire continental United States as tensions
mounted in 2017.
Trump and Kim then embarked on an extraordinary diplomatic bromance,
holding two headline-grabbing summits in Singapore and Vietnam.
The United States pulled back on some joint military exercises with South
Korea while the North froze intercontinental ballistic missile tests.
But the February 2019 Hanoi summit broke up over sanctions relief and what
North Korea would be willing to give up in return.
Communications then dried up, despite a third encounter in the
Demilitarized Zone that divides the Korean peninsula, and no substantive
progress was made towards denuclearisation.
“North Korea appears to be returning to a familiar pattern of using
provocations to raise tensions and garner attention,” said Jean Lee of the
Wilson Center in Washington.
Pyongyang carried out a series of weapons tests last year that it called
“long-range artillery” but others described as short-range ballistic
missiles.
Trump had been “willing to turn a blind eye to North Korea’s ballistic
missile launches as long as they were not tests of long-range missiles”, Lee
said.
“But I suspect the Biden administration will confront any confirmed
ballistic missile launches that violate UN Security Council resolutions.”
– ‘Lunatic theory’ –
Thursday’s launch comes after Pyongyang fired two short-range, non-
ballistic missiles in a westerly direction towards China at the weekend.
US officials played that down as not a violation of UN resolutions, with
Biden telling reporters: “According to the Defense Department, it’s business
as usual.”
It followed joint exercises by the US and South Korean militaries and a
visit to the region by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense
Secretary Lloyd Austin to discuss alliance and security issues.
During their trip to Seoul and Tokyo, Blinken repeatedly stressed the
importance of denuclearising North Korea.
That prompted North Korean first vice foreign minister Choe Son Hui to
accuse the United States of a “lunatic theory of ‘threat from North Korea’
and groundless rhetoric about ‘complete denuclearisation'”.
Yoo Ho-yeol, emeritus professor of North Korean studies at Korea
University, told AFP that Thursday’s launch “signals the beginning of
Pyongyang putting pressure on Washington for nuclear talks”.
“What it will do next depends on to what degree the US and China will
respond to this.”
Biden administration officials say they have sought to reach out to
Pyongyang through several channels but have received no response so far.
They are now finalising a strategy that the White House will discuss with
Japanese and South Korean security officials next week.