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CHINA-VIRUS-CONTROL
New study shows transmission control measures greatly avert COVID-19 cases
in China
WASHINGTON, April 1, 2020 (BSS/XINHUA) – A new study published Tuesday by
Science magazine suggests that the lockdown of Wuhan, capital of central
China’s Hubei Province, combined with the Level 1 national emergency
response, averted hundreds of thousands of COVID-19 cases in China by Feb.
19.
The study, led by Tian Huaiyu of Beijing Normal University, focused on the
development of the epidemic in the first 50 days in China, which ended on
Feb. 19.
To more quantitively investigate the impact of travel restrictions and
social distancing measures on infection spread, the researchers used a unique
geocoded repository of data on COVID-19 epidemiology, human movement, and
public health intervention in China in an analysis that spanned from Dec. 31,
2019 to Feb, 19, 2020.
During this period, China imposed a travel ban on Wuhan, where the outbreak
first started, on Jan. 23 and raised its national public health response to
the highest state: Level 1, including suspended public transport, closed
entertainment venues, and bans on large public gatherings.
On average, the travel ban delayed the arrival time of COVID-19 in cities
by an estimated 2.91 days, according to the study.
Cities that implemented a Level 1 response before cases were reported had
33.3 percent fewer laboratory-confirmed cases during the first week of their
outbreaks, the data show.
Without the travel ban on Wuhan or the national emergency response, there
would have been approximately 744,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases outside Wuhan
by Feb. 19, the model suggests.
With the ban alone, there would have been approximately 202,000 cases; and
while with the national emergency response alone, the figure would have
decreased to roughly 199,000, according to the study.
Neither intervention alone would have reversed the rise in incidence by
Feb. 19. But together, they offer an explanation for limiting the number of
confirmed cases to 29,839, 96 percent fewer than expected in the absence of
interventions by day 50, according to the study.
BSS/XINHUA/GMR/0953 hrs