Putin and Zelensky in first talks to revive Ukraine peace efforts

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MOSCOW, Dec 6, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – The leaders of Russia and Ukraine will
meet on Monday for talks on the conflict in east Ukraine, in what could be a
step forward in ending Europe’s only active war.

The summit in Paris will mark the first time Russia’s Vladimir Putin meets
face-to-face with Ukraine’s new comedian-turned-president, Volodymyr
Zelensky.

Few are expecting an immediate breakthrough, but Zelensky’s election this
year and a recent easing of tensions have raised hopes of resolving the five-
year conflict.

French President Emmanuel Macron, who will mediate along with German
Chancellor Angela Merkel, pushed hard for the talks and they will be a test
of his efforts to reset Europe’s ties with Moscow.

Speaking to reporters in Kiev this week, Zelensky played down expectations
but said it was “very important” the summit was taking place at all.

“Honestly, I don’t know whether we will succeed or not, but the first
victory is that we are meeting,” he said.

Since it broke out in 2014, the conflict between Kiev and Russia-backed
separatists in eastern Ukraine has killed more than 13,000 people, forced
more than a million from their homes and battered the country’s economy.

It has also deeply strained ties between Russia and the West, with the
United States and European Union imposing sweeping sanctions on Moscow over
its annexation of Crimea and support for the separatists.

– Tensions easing –

Monday’s talks will be the first in three years under the so-called
Normandy format, which aims to put in place accords agreed in Minsk by
Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany in February 2015.

The Minsk accords called for a ceasefire, the withdrawal of heavy weapons,
the restoration of Kiev’s control over its borders, the granting of wider
autonomy to separatist-controlled territory and the holding of local
elections

But the deal was never implemented and talks stalled under Zelensky’s
predecessor Petro Poroshenko.

Since coming to power in May after a shock election win, Zelensky has
overseen a series of steps to reduce tensions, including a historic exchange
of 70 prisoners with Russia, the withdrawal of some frontline forces and the
return of Ukrainian ships seized by Moscow last year.

The Kremlin has sent signals that it is ready to work with Zelensky, who
Putin has described as “likeable” and “sincere”.

Zelensky has said he will be pushing on three points at the talks: another
exchange of prisoners — preferably before the New Year, the implementation
of a ceasefire and the disbanding of all “illegal” armed groups on Ukrainian
territory.

Putin has been less forthcoming about his intentions, but Moscow will
likely seek guarantees on the status of the separatist-held territories of
Donetsk and Lugansk and the conduct of elections.

The Russian leader will also be looking to hear from France and Germany
about the possibility of easing sanctions that have hit his country’s
economy.

The issue of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine to Europe might come
up as well, ahead of a late December deadline to avoid a cut off.

– ‘Change in the mood music’ –

Zelensky will have to tread carefully. Led by nationalists and war
veterans, a series of protests have broken out in Kiev in recent weeks
warning against any “capitulation” to Russia.

And he may have lost a key ally in the United States, as longstanding
bipartisan American support for Kiev is called into question by Donald
Trump’s impeachment scandal.

Macron will be anxious for progress in the negotiations, having
spearheaded a drive for the talks and launched an effort to reopen a dialogue
with Moscow.

He first mooted a summit at a meeting with Putin in the south of France in
August and has since spoken repeatedly with the Russian leader by phone.

Mark Galeotti, an associate fellow with RUSI in London, said it was
unlikely there would be concrete progress at the talks, but that they were
nonetheless crucial.

“It’s important because it represents potential for a change in the mood
music, it’s a first step,” Galeotti said.

“The Russians are actually making quite a lot of noises suggesting they
are much more willing to negotiate than in the past… There has been a
meaningful shift.”