ANKARA, Sept 16, 2019 (BSS/AFP) – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
will host his Russian and Iranian counterparts on Monday for their latest
summit on Syria, with attention focused on Damascus’s push on the last rebel-
held bastion of Idlib. Presidents Vladimir Putin and Hassan Rouhani will join
Erdogan in the Turkish capital Ankara for their fifth summit on the conflict
since 2017.
Iran and Russia have been staunch supporters of Syrian President Bashar
al-Assad, while Turkey has called for his ouster and backed opposition
fighters.
But with Assad’s position looking increasingly secure, Turkey’s priority
has shifted to preventing a mass influx of refugees from Idlib in Syria’s
northwest.
Turkey is concerned by the steady advance of Syrian forces into the
region, backed by Russian airpower, despite a series of ceasefires.
Turkey has 12 observation posts in Idlib to enforce a buffer zone
agreement struck a year ago with Russia to prevent a full-scale Syrian
offensive.
But the posts look increasingly threatened, with one of them cut off from
the rest of Idlib when Syrian forces advanced last month.
Russian air strikes have continued in the region despite the latest
ceasefire between Ankara and Moscow on August 31.
“A large number of terrorists are still present in this zone… and
fighters continue to fire on the positions of government forces,” Kremlin
advisor Yuri Ushakov said on Friday.
– Low expectations –
The Turkish presidency said the leaders would discuss the latest
developments in Syria as well as “ensuring the necessary conditions for the
voluntary return of refugees and discussing the joint step to be taken in the
period ahead with the aim of achieving a lasting political solution.”
Moscow is keen to see progress on establishing a constitutional committee
to oversee the next stage of the political settlement in Syria.
That would give Putin a political win to add to its military victories,
said Dareen Khalifa, senior Syria analyst at International Crisis Group.
But she said expectations should remain low.
Even if they could agree on who will form the committee, “this leaves a
crux of issues unaddressed for the future of the political process including
the regime’s ability and willingness to undertake any kind of political
reform,” Khalifa told AFP.
All three leaders are expected to hold one-on-one meetings before the
summit, the Kremlin said.
They will also hold a closing news conference with a view to presenting a
joint declaration.
Meanwhile, Turkey has other concerns regarding Syria.
It has repeatedly threatened to launch a cross-border offensive against
Syrian Kurdish forces, whom it sees as allied to Kurdish militants in its own
territory.
That has strained Turkey’s relations with its NATO ally, the United
States, which backs the Syrian Kurds as the main fighting force against the
Islamic State group (IS).
The US has vowed to work with Turkey to clear Kurdish forces away from its
border, but Ankara says progress has so far been “cosmetic” and it could
launch an operation into Syria by the end of this month.
Turkey has conducted two previous offensives against IS in 2016 and the
Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) militia in 2018.